Columbus Crew
vs
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Columbus Crew 2–1 Toronto FC
The model makes it 45% Columbus Crew, 26% draw, 29% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Columbus Crew 1.75, Toronto FC 1.30.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Columbus Crew are 13th on 29 points from 28 games; Toronto FC are 11th on 32 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Columbus Crew have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Orlando City SC.
- Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to CF Montreal.
- Last 5 meetings: Columbus Crew 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Toronto FC 2–1 Columbus Crew.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Columbus Crew at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
- L2-3away to Orlando City SC10 October 2026
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
- L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
Toronto FC
- W2-1CF Montreal10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
- W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
What these results say
- Columbus Crew scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 29 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Columbus Crew
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
Toronto FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
- 21 March 2026Toronto FC 2–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2025Columbus Crew 1–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 16 August 2025Toronto FC 1–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 18 September 2024Toronto FC 0–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2024Columbus Crew 4–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Columbus Crew carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.44 for Toronto FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.30 for Toronto FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Columbus Crew rate 0.66 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toronto FC rate 0.64 and 1.45.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Columbus Crew against 1.30 for Toronto FC. Columbus Crew's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.45 for Toronto FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Columbus Crew at home · Toronto FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Columbus Crew 27, Toronto FC 27.
Columbus Crew score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Toronto FC have let in 10 there.
Toronto FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Columbus Crew have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Columbus Crew
- at FC Dallas29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
- vs DC United31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 49%
- at Chicago Fire7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 25%
Toronto FC
- vs DC United28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 47%
- at Atlanta United FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- at Philadelphia Union7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.