Montpellier
vs
RED Star FC 93
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Montpellier 1–0 RED Star FC 93
The model makes it 43% Montpellier, 30% draw, 27% RED Star FC 93 — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Montpellier 1.35, RED Star FC 93 0.94.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Montpellier are 3rd on 15 points from 8 games; RED Star FC 93 are 2nd on 17 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Montpellier are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Grenoble.
- RED Star FC 93 are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Clermont Foot.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended RED Star FC 93 1–1 Montpellier.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Montpellier at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93
Montpellier
- W2-0Grenoble9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Reims18 September 2026
- W1-0PAU11 September 2026
- L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
RED Star FC 93
- W3-2away to Clermont Foot10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Guingamp19 September 2026
- W1-0Metz14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Laval4 September 2026
- L1-4Reims29 August 2026
What these results say
- Montpellier scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Montpellier had two goals or fewer.
- RED Star FC 93 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- RED Star FC 93 won 4 of these 5 matches.
- RED Star FC 93 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 15 |
| 2 | RED Star FC 93 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Montpellier
Chance to finish in the top four · 48% today
RED Star FC 93
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93
- 9 May 2026RED Star FC 93 1–1 MontpellierLigue 2
- 9 August 2025Montpellier 1–1 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
Leading scorers: Montpellier and RED Star FC 93
Montpellier
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
RED Star FC 93
GoalsAssists
- D. Durand50
- J. Ikanga A Ngele42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Montpellier carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.5 for RED Star FC 93. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Montpellier and 0.94 for RED Star FC 93. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Montpellier rate 0.60 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RED Star FC 93 rate 0.75 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour RED Star FC 93, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Montpellier a 9.6% chance of the title and RED Star FC 93 11.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montpellier the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Montpellier against 0.94 for RED Star FC 93. Montpellier's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.52 for RED Star FC 93.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Montpellier at home · RED Star FC 93 away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MontpellierRED Star FC 93
Montpellier are 2nd after 8 Ligue 2 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); RED Star FC 93 are 1st after 8 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Montpellier 8, RED Star FC 93 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Montpellier
- at Annecy31 Oct · Ligue 2win 32%
- vs Metz6 Nov · Ligue 2win 40%
- at Laval20 Nov · Ligue 2win 45%
- vs Nantes4 Dec · Ligue 2win 36%
RED Star FC 93
- vs Nancy2 Nov · Ligue 2win 47%
- at Dijon6 Nov · Ligue 2win 32%
- vs PAU20 Nov · Ligue 2win 50%
- at Dunkerque4 Dec · Ligue 2win 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.