Sporting CP
vs
Academico Viseu
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Sporting CP 2–0 Academico Viseu
The model makes it 65% Sporting CP, 20% draw, 15% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.50, Academico Viseu 0.97.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sporting CP are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sporting CP are 3rd on 18 points from 8 games; Academico Viseu are 6th on 14 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to SC Braga.
- Academico Viseu are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Estoril.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 65% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu
Sporting CP
- W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
Academico Viseu
- W2-1Estoril10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026
- W2-1Vitória SC12 September 2026
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Porto29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Academico Viseu won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Academico Viseu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 18 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sporting CP
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 14% today
Academico Viseu
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Academico Viseu
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez71
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Academico Viseu
GoalsAssists
- André Clóvis40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sporting CP carry a model rating of 7.21 against 6.82 for Academico Viseu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.50 goals for Sporting CP and 0.97 for Academico Viseu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting CP rate 1.62 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academico Viseu rate 0.96 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting CP a 14.1% chance of the title and Academico Viseu 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Sporting CP against 0.97 for Academico Viseu. Sporting CP's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.02 for Academico Viseu.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting CP at home · Academico Viseu away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Sporting CP 8, Academico Viseu 8.
Academico Viseu score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Sporting CP have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sporting CP
- vs Maritimo27 Oct · Taça da Ligawin 78%
- at Casa Pia30 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 74%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
- vs Moreirense7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 76%
- vs Manchester United25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 58%
Academico Viseu
- at FC Porto28 Oct · Taça da Ligawin 11%
- vs Rio Ave1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 56%
- at Nacional7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
- vs Alverca28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
- at Famalicao6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.