Fulham vs Crystal Palace League Cup prediction & result
Final score: Fulham 0-1 Crystal Palace.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Fulham, 27% draw, 23% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Fulham at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23B. LecomteG
- 2K. TeteD
- 5J. AndersenD
- 3C. BasseyD
- 33A. RobinsonD
- 16S. BergeM
- 15H. LarssonM
- 14Oscar BobbM
- 17A. IwobiM
- 8César PalaciosM
- 9Rodrigo MunizF
- 24Joshua KingM
- 20Manuel ÁngelM
- 6H. ReedM
- 1B. LenoG
- 4Jorge CuencaD
- 21T. CastagneD
- 10T. CairneyM
- 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
- 11KevinF
- 1D. HendersonG
- 8J. LermaD
- 26C. RichardsD
- 21H. AhanorD
- 30Óscar MinguezaM
- 19W. HughesM
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 33B. ChilwellM
- 24D. OsorioM
- 29E. GuessandM
- 9E. NketiahF
- 5A. DisasiD
- 12Z. GozoF
- 18D. KamadaM
- 25A. KhalailiD
- 11D. McNeilF
- 3T. MitchellD
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 44W. BenítezG
Form going into Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Fulham
Premier League
- W1-0away to Coventry24 October 2026
- W1-0Hull City17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
Crystal Palace
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Newcastle25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Beşiktaş22 October 2026
- L0-5away to Brighton18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Lyon15 October 2026
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Crystal Palace had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Fulham
Crystal Palace and Fulham have met 7 times in the records we hold, Crystal Palace has won 6 of them to Fulham's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Crystal Palace won the last one 1–0 on 28 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 |
| Fulham | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 14 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Oct 2026
League CupFulham 0–1 Crystal Palace - 5 Sep 2026
Premier LeagueFulham 2–3 Crystal Palace - 7 Aug 2026
Friendlies ClubsFulham 1–2 Crystal Palace - 1 Jan 2026
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 1–1 Fulham - 7 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueFulham 1–2 Crystal Palace - 29 Mar 2025
FA CupFulham 0–3 Crystal Palace - 22 Feb 2025
Premier LeagueFulham 0–2 Crystal Palace
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Fulham concede 34% fewer than Crystal Palace. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 0.84 | 1.27 |
| Fulham | 0.82 | 0.84 |
The result against the call
Crystal Palace won 1–0 at Fulham. The model had leaned towards a win for Fulham at 50% and given a win for Crystal Palace 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Eddie Nketiah 37' for Crystal Palace. On expected goals it finished 1.57–0.58.
How the call on Fulham v Crystal Palace has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Fulham's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Fulham win50%▲ +7
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Crystal Palace win23%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Fulham's most recent league matches and Crystal Palace's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.