28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Sunderland vs Brentford League Cup prediction & result

Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Referee: G. Ward
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Sunderland 3-2 Brentford.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Sunderland, 29% draw, 39% Brentford — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Brentford at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sunderland99%Draw1%Brentford0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Chemsdine Talbi
26'
⚽Timur Tutierovassist: Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi
29'
⚽Malick Fofanaassist: Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi
39'
42'
⚽Callum Wilsonassist: Vitaly Janelt
🔁Habib Diarraout: Chris Rigg
45'
59'
🔁Callum Wilsonout: Dango Ouattara
59'
🔁Michael Kayodeout: Aaron Hickey
59'
🔁Mamadou Sangareout: Mathias Jensen
🔁Timur Tutierovout: Thomas Meunier
60'
🔁Omar Aldereteout: Luke O'Nien
60'
71'
🔁Jaidon Anthonyout: Kevin Schade
71'
🔁Nathan Collinsout: Kristoffer Ajer
74'
Kevin Schade
🔁Chemsdine Talbiout: Tom Proctor
80'
83'
Vitaly Janelt
85'
Jannik Schuster
Chris Rigg
89'
90+4'
⚽Igor Thiagoassist: Mathias Jensen
🔁Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Biout: F. Scott
90+4'

Match stats — Sunderland vs Brentford

33%Possession67%
7Shots16
4On target7
0Corners5
2.38xG2.68

Goals against chances

Sunderland3 from 2.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
Brentford2 from 2.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1
  • 31M. EllborgG
  • 8A. BrowneD
  • 4K. DansoD
  • 15O. AldereteD
  • 6D. MethalieD
  • 7C. TalbiM
  • 29Jules AhokaM
  • 37J. BiM
  • 19H. DiarraM
  • 39M. FofanaM
  • 57Timur TuterovF
Substitutes
  • 12T. MeunierD
  • 21S. MooreG
  • 13L. O'NienM
  • 77T. ProctorM
  • 11C. RiggM
  • 47T. OgunsuyiF
  • 40J. WhittakerM
  • 49F. ScottF
  • 48Jenson JonesD
Coach: R. Le Bris
Brentford 4-2-3-1
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
  • 33M. KayodeD
  • 44Jannik SchusterD
  • 22N. CollinsD
  • 25E. DioufD
  • 18M. SangaréM
  • 27V. JaneltM
  • 19J. AnthonyM
  • 24M. DamsgaardM
  • 13C. WilsonM
  • 9ThiagoF
Substitutes
  • 8M. JensenM
  • 1C. KelleherG
  • 23K. Lewis-PotterF
  • 11D. OuattaraF
  • 7K. SchadeM
  • 4S. van den BergD
  • 2A. HickeyD
  • 39Gustavo GomesF
  • 20K. AjerD
Coach: Keith Andrews

Form going into Sunderland vs Brentford

Sunderland

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Leeds25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lech Poznan22 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Bournemouth18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Torreense15 October 2026
  • L0-2Brighton10 October 2026

Brentford

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Hull City25 October 2026
  • L1-2Liverpool17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sunderland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sunderland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sunderland had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Brentford vs Sunderland

Brentford and Sunderland have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.

The record

Sunderland won the last one 3–2 on 28 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Brentford222129
Sunderland222912

Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 28 Oct 2026
    League Cup    Sunderland 3–2 Brentford
  • 5 Sep 2026
    Premier League    Brentford 1–1 Sunderland
  • 7 Jan 2026
    Premier League    Brentford 3–0 Sunderland
  • 30 Aug 2025
    Premier League    Sunderland 2–1 Brentford
  • 17 Feb 2018
    Championship    Sunderland 0–2 Brentford
  • 21 Oct 2017
    Championship    Brentford 3–3 Sunderland

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Brentford's attack rates 40% above Sunderland's, and Brentford concede 13% fewer than Sunderland. That gives Brentford the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Brentford1.130.87
Sunderland0.811.00

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Sunderland and Brentford

Sunderland

No leading scorers listed yet.

Brentford

GoalsAssists

  • K. Schade30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sunderland beat Brentford 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Brentford at 39% and given a win for Sunderland 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Chemsdine Talbi 26' for Sunderland, Timur Tutierov 29' for Sunderland, Malick Fofana 39' for Sunderland, Callum Wilson 42' for Brentford, Igor Thiago 90+4' for Brentford. On expected goals it finished 2.38–2.68.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.