Antalyaspor
vs
Bodrum FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Antalyaspor 1–0 Bodrum FK
The model makes it 43% Antalyaspor, 30% draw, 27% Bodrum FK — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.37, Bodrum FK 0.98.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Antalyaspor are 7th on 15 points from 9 games; Bodrum FK are 13th on 11 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Antalyaspor are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Boluspor.
- Bodrum FK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Sarıyer.
- Last 4 meetings: Antalyaspor 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 April 2025, ended Bodrum FK 0–0 Antalyaspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Antalyaspor at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK
Antalyaspor
- W1-0away to Boluspor10 October 2026
- W3-0Vanspor FK20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Ümraniyespor12 September 2026
- L1-2Sivasspor6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bandırmaspor1 September 2026
Bodrum FK
- W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026
- L0-2Keçiörengücü9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Pendikspor20 September 2026
- W4-0Batman Petrolspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 19697 September 2026
What these results say
- Antalyaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Antalyaspor won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Antalyaspor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 13 | Bodrum FK | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Antalyaspor
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
Bodrum FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK
- 12 April 2025Bodrum FK 0–0 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 5 February 2025Bodrum FK 3–1 AntalyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 9 November 2024Antalyaspor 3–2 Bodrum FKSüper Lig
- 14 July 2022Antalyaspor 2–0 Bodrum FKFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK
Antalyaspor
GoalsAssists
- S. van de Streek32
Bodrum FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Antalyaspor carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.48 for Bodrum FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Antalyaspor and 0.98 for Bodrum FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Antalyaspor rate 0.67 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodrum FK rate 0.59 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Antalyaspor a 6% chance of the title and Bodrum FK 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Antalyaspor the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Antalyaspor against 0.98 for Bodrum FK. Antalyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.26 for Bodrum FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Antalyaspor at home · Bodrum FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Antalyaspor 9, Bodrum FK 10.
Antalyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Bodrum FK have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Antalyaspor
- at Iğdır FK1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 33%
- vs Bursaspor6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 40%
- at Esenler Erokspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 32%
Bodrum FK
- vs Ümraniyespor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 51%
- at Boluspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 49%
- vs Vanspor FK23 Nov · 1. Ligwin 58%
- at Sivasspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.