Dundee
vs
Kilmarnock
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Dundee 2–1 Kilmarnock
The model makes it 54% Dundee, 23% draw, 23% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Dundee 2.18, Kilmarnock 1.26.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Dundee: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Dundee are 4th on 13 points from 8 games; Kilmarnock are bottom on 5 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Dundee have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Falkirk.
- Kilmarnock have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Rangers.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dundee at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Dundee
- W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026
- W2-1Motherwell19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian6 September 2026
- D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
- L1-2Hibernian30 August 2026
Kilmarnock
- L1-3away to Rangers10 October 2026
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
What these results say
- Dundee scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundee conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dundee.
- Kilmarnock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kilmarnock had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee vs Kilmarnock
- 12 May 2026Kilmarnock 3–1 DundeePremiership
- 11 April 2026Kilmarnock 2–2 DundeePremiership
- 17 January 2026Kilmarnock 1–2 DundeeFA Cup
- 30 December 2025Dundee 2–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 23 August 2025Kilmarnock 0–0 DundeePremiership
- 10 May 2025Kilmarnock 3–2 DundeePremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee and Kilmarnock
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- J. Westley30
- O. Bevan20
- B. Fink20
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dundee carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.25 for Kilmarnock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Dundee and 1.26 for Kilmarnock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundee rate 0.64 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kilmarnock rate 0.61 and 2.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dundee a 0.3% chance of the title and Kilmarnock 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundee the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Dundee against 1.26 for Kilmarnock. Dundee's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.03 for Kilmarnock.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dundee at home · Kilmarnock away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
DundeeKilmarnock
Dundee are 4th after 8 Premiership matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Kilmarnock are 12th after 8 (between 10th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Dundee 8, Kilmarnock 8.
Dundee score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Kilmarnock have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dundee
- at Hibernian31 Oct · Premiershipwin 29%
- at St Johnstone7 Nov · Premiershipwin 30%
- vs Heart of Midlothian21 Nov · Premiershipwin 30%
Kilmarnock
- vs St Johnstone31 Oct · Premiershipwin 35%
- at Celtic8 Nov · Premiershipwin 9%
- vs Aberdeen21 Nov · Premiershipwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.