San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 0-0 Newell's Old Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% San Lorenzo, 36% draw, 29% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.86, 2.78 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 16G. CorujoD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 19E. AmorD
- 24N. TripichioM
- 62G. AlassiaM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 3T. RodríguezM
- 38F. FaríasM
- 9A. CuelloF
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 27M. RíoM
- 39Elián Uriel OjedaM
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 36Daniel HerreraD
- 32E. HerreraD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 34Maximo Atrio
- 30O. AriasD
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 6M. OrtegaD
- 25B. CabreraD
- 16L. CarrizoD
- 28J. RussoD
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 19J. MattarM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20Facundo GauchM
- 32S. SolariM
- 9M. CóccaroF
- 24F. EscobarD
- 23N. GoiteaD
- 27L. GómezM
- 4A. MonteroM
- 33W. NúñezF
- 99I. RamírezF
- 39T. RiosF
- 22O. SalomónD
- 36Francisco ScarpeccioF
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1away to Estudiantes La Plata18 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Defensa Y Justicia3 October 2026
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026
- D0-0Lanus3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
What these results say
- San Lorenzo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 18 |
| 6 | Newell's Old Boys | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
- 12 April 2026Newell's Old Boys 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 July 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 March 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–2 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 7 October 2023San Lorenzo 0–3 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 March 2023Newell's Old Boys 1–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 June 2022Newell's Old Boys 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
The result against the call
San Lorenzo and Newell's Old Boys drew 0–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a draw at 36%. On expected goals it finished 0.57–1.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Lorenzo a 35.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 61.3% after a win, 26.1% after a draw, 10.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.1%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.
For Newell's Old Boys the question was the chance to finish in the top eight: 99.5% after a win, 92.8% after a draw, 71.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 92.8%.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on San Lorenzo v Newell's Old Boys has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 33% / 36% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 35% / 36% / 29%: the biggest move is San Lorenzo's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- San Lorenzo win35%▲ +2
- Draw36%=
- Newell's Old Boys win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.