Holstein Kiel
vs
Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Holstein Kiel 2–1 Dynamo Dresden
The model makes it 40% Holstein Kiel, 27% draw, 33% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Holstein Kiel 1.53, Dynamo Dresden 1.34.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Holstein Kiel are bottom on 4 points from 7 games; Dynamo Dresden are 16th on 5 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Holstein Kiel have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Eintracht Braunschweig.
- Dynamo Dresden have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to VfL Osnabrück.
- Last 6 meetings: Holstein Kiel 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Holstein Kiel.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Holstein Kiel at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
- L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026
- D1-1VfL Osnabrück19 September 2026
- L0-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim13 September 2026
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
Dynamo Dresden
- D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026
- L1-2Hertha BSC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig12 September 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum5 September 2026
- L3-5away to 1. FC Heidenheim29 August 2026
What these results say
- Holstein Kiel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Holstein Kiel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Holstein Kiel had two goals or fewer.
- Dynamo Dresden did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Holstein Kiel
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
Dynamo Dresden
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden
- 17 May 2026Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 20 December 2025Holstein Kiel 2–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 16 April 2022Dynamo Dresden 0–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 5 November 2021Holstein Kiel 2–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 18 June 2020Holstein Kiel 2–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 30 November 2019Dynamo Dresden 1–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres42
Dynamo Dresden
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Holstein Kiel carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.45 for Dynamo Dresden. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.34 for Dynamo Dresden. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Holstein Kiel rate 0.58 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo Dresden rate 0.69 and 1.53.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dynamo Dresden, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Holstein Kiel a 0% chance of the title and Dynamo Dresden 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Holstein Kiel the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Holstein Kiel against 1.34 for Dynamo Dresden. Holstein Kiel's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.53 for Dynamo Dresden.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Holstein Kiel at home · Dynamo Dresden away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Holstein KielDynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel are 16th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Dynamo Dresden are 16th after 7 (between 11th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Holstein Kiel 7, Dynamo Dresden 7.
Holstein Kiel score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Dynamo Dresden have let in 0 there.
Dynamo Dresden score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Holstein Kiel have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Holstein Kiel
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 26%
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth1 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Arminia Bielefeld7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at VfL Wolfsburg21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 20%
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
Dynamo Dresden
- vs FC Schalke 0427 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 27%
- at Hannover 961 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 26%
- vs FC St. Pauli28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.