Gremio
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Gremio 0–1 Atletico Paranaense
The model makes it 34% Gremio, 28% draw, 38% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gremio 1.30, Atletico Paranaense 1.43.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Atletico Paranaense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Gremio are 18th on 31 points from 30 games; Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 53 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Gremio have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Internacional.
- Atletico Paranaense are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Chapecoense.
- Last 6 meetings: Gremio 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Gremio.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
- D1-1Internacional11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Remo7 October 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo16 September 2026
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
- D2-2Atletico Mineiro8 October 2026
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
What these results say
- Gremio did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gremio scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 31 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 35 | +14 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gremio
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
Atletico Paranaense
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio
Atletico Paranaense and Gremio have met 6 times in the records we hold, Gremio has won 3 of them to Atletico Paranaense's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Atletico Paranaense on 2 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Gremio | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 May 2026
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 0–0 Gremio - 4 Aug 2024
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 0–2 Gremio - 17 Apr 2024
Serie AGremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense - 18 Oct 2023
Serie AGremio 1–2 Atletico Paranaense - 27 May 2023
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 1–2 Gremio - 26 Sep 2021
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 4–2 Gremio
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| Gremio | 0.74 | 1.16 |
Leading scorers: Gremio and Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius101
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gremio carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.85 for Atletico Paranaense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Gremio and 1.43 for Atletico Paranaense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gremio rate 0.74 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Paranaense rate 1.10 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gremio a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Paranaense 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gremio against 1.43 for Atletico Paranaense. Gremio's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.11 for Atletico Paranaense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gremio at home · Atletico Paranaense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Gremio 30, Atletico Paranaense 30.
Gremio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Atletico Paranaense have let in 1 there.
Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (13 goals); Gremio have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gremio
- at Flamengo4 Nov · Serie Awin 12%
- vs Bahia18 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
- at Santos22 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
Atletico Paranaense
- vs Vasco da Gama4 Nov · Serie Awin 55%
- at Flamengo18 Nov · Serie Awin 19%
- vs Remo22 Nov · Serie Awin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.