Neman
vs
Dinamo Brest
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Neman 1–0 Dinamo Brest
The model makes it 41% Neman, 29% draw, 30% Dinamo Brest — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Neman 1.40, Dinamo Brest 1.11.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Neman are 4th on 43 points from 24 games; Dinamo Brest are 5th on 43 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- Neman are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Bate Borisov.
- Dinamo Brest are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Brest 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended Neman 1–2 Dinamo Brest.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Neman vs Dinamo Brest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Neman at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Neman vs Dinamo Brest
Neman
- W2-0away to Bate Borisov14 October 2026
- W3-0Baranovichi10 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.19 September 2026
- W1-0Torpedo Zhodino12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Belshina6 September 2026
Dinamo Brest
- W1-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk9 October 2026
- W4-2FC Dnepr Mogilev20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk13 September 2026
- W1-0Bate Borisov7 September 2026
- L1-3ML Vitebsk29 August 2026
What these results say
- Neman went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Neman scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Neman won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Brest scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Brest won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Neman | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 43 |
| 5 | Dinamo Brest | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 23 | +16 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Neman
Chance to finish in the top four · 34% today
Dinamo Brest
Chance to finish in the top four · 60% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Neman vs Dinamo Brest
- 2 October 2026Neman 1–2 Dinamo BrestFriendlies Clubs
- 13 June 2026Dinamo Brest 1–3 NemanPremier League
- 24 January 2026Neman 4–0 Dinamo BrestFriendlies Clubs
- 15 September 2025Dinamo Brest 2–0 NemanPremier League
- 26 April 2025Neman 0–1 Dinamo BrestPremier League
- 26 October 2024Dinamo Brest 2–2 NemanPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Neman carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.36 for Dinamo Brest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Neman and 1.11 for Dinamo Brest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Neman rate 0.53 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Brest rate 0.61 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Neman a 0.1% chance of the title and Dinamo Brest 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Neman the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Neman against 1.11 for Dinamo Brest. Neman's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.62 for Dinamo Brest.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Neman at home · Dinamo Brest away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Neman 24, Dinamo Brest 24.
Neman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Dinamo Brest have let in 4 there.
Dinamo Brest score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Neman have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Neman
- at Dinamo Minsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC Dnepr Mogilev7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 62%
- at Arsenal Dzerzhinsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- vs FC Gomel28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
Dinamo Brest
- vs FC Vitebsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- at FC Minsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Naftan21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 74%
- at Slavia Mozyr28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.