Regular Season - 9 · 27 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Barnet vs York League Two postponed match

The Hive Stadium, London
PostponedNot played

This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.

Before the match was called off the model made it 43% Barnet, 25% draw, 32% York — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Barnet 1.89, York 1.57.

Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

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Model insights: Barnet vs York

68%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Barnet win Draw York win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 2–06%
  6. 3–16%
  7. 1–05%

Scores read Barnet first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 50%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Barnet at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Barnet vs York

Barnet

League Two

  • D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
  • L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Bristol Rovers10 October 2026
  • W3-1Fleetwood Town19 September 2026

York

League Two

  • W2-0Port Vale24 October 2026
  • D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Newport County17 October 2026
  • D1-1Northampton10 October 2026
  • W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Barnet.
  • York went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • York scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for York had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Barnet116412416+822
5York125522113+820

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Barnet vs York

  • 18 February 2025Barnet 3–1 YorkNational League
  • 22 October 2024York 3–1 BarnetNational League
  • 24 February 2024Barnet 2–0 YorkNational League
  • 26 September 2023York 2–4 BarnetNational League
  • 3 April 2023York 1–0 BarnetNational League
  • 1 October 2022Barnet 0–5 YorkNational League

Leading scorers: Barnet and York

Barnet

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tshimanga85
  • C. Lakin63

York

GoalsAssists

  • O. Pearce64
  • A. Newby61

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Barnet carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.28 for York. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Barnet and 1.57 for York. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Barnet rate 0.68 in attack and 2.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; York rate 0.60 and 1.90.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barnet a 28.9% chance of the title and York 15.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,271 correct results out of 4,739 settled predictions (48%), with 469 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Barnet against 1.57 for York. Barnet's attack/defence rating is 0.68/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.9 for York.

How the model reaches 43% for Barnet to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barnet to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Barnet's ratings take away 26 points and York's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Barnet's ratings15%−26
  4. York's ratings43%+28

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.