Juventude
vs
Nautico Recife
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Juventude 2–0 Nautico Recife
The model makes it 61% Juventude, 22% draw, 17% Nautico Recife — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Juventude 2.27, Nautico Recife 0.95.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Juventude: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Juventude are 3rd on 60 points from 33 games; Nautico Recife are 14th on 42 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Juventude are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to São Bernardo.
- Nautico Recife are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Vila Nova.
- Last 6 meetings: Juventude 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 July 2026, ended Nautico Recife 0–0 Juventude.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juventude vs Nautico Recife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventude at 61% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Juventude vs Nautico Recife
Juventude
- D2-2São Bernardo11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Ponte Preta7 October 2026
- W3-0Operario-PR2 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife19 September 2026
Nautico Recife
- L0-2Vila Nova11 October 2026
- L0-2Novorizontino8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba22 September 2026
What these results say
- Juventude scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 60 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Juventude
Chance to win the league · 25% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Juventude vs Nautico Recife
- 5 July 2026Nautico Recife 0–0 JuventudeSerie B
- 29 November 2020Juventude 1–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 22 August 2020Nautico Recife 3–3 JuventudeSerie B
- 22 September 2019Nautico Recife 2–1 JuventudeSerie C
- 15 September 2019Juventude 2–1 Nautico RecifeSerie C
- 24 October 2017Juventude 0–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
Leading scorers: Juventude and Nautico Recife
Juventude
GoalsAssists
- Raí74
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Juventude carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.28 for Nautico Recife. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Juventude and 0.95 for Nautico Recife. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juventude rate 0.75 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nautico Recife rate 0.59 and 1.86.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Juventude a 25.1% chance of the title and Nautico Recife 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventude the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Juventude against 0.95 for Nautico Recife. Juventude's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.86 for Nautico Recife.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Juventude at home · Nautico Recife away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Juventude 33, Nautico Recife 33.
Juventude score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Nautico Recife have let in 10 there.
Nautico Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Juventude have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Juventude
- at Vila Nova31 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Cuiaba7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Botafogo SP14 Nov · Serie Bwin 60%
Nautico Recife
- vs Avai31 Oct · Serie Bwin 45%
- vs CRB8 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
- at Londrina14 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.