Helmond Sport
vs
Willem II
KNVB Beker prediction
Our model says: Helmond Sport 1–0 Willem II
The model makes it 36% Helmond Sport, 29% draw, 35% Willem II — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.30, Willem II 1.28.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Helmond Sport and Willem II are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Helmond Sport are 17th in Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season on 9 points from 10 games; Willem II are bottom in Eredivisie on 2 points from 8 games.
- Helmond Sport are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to FC OSS.
- Willem II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Utrecht.
- Last 5 meetings: Willem II 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 December 2025, ended Helmond Sport 2–2 Willem II.
Chance to go through
KNVB Beker Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Helmond Sport36%
- Level after ninety minutes28%
- Willem II36%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More KNVB Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Helmond Sport vs Willem II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Helmond Sport at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Helmond Sport vs Willem II
Helmond Sport
- L1-3away to FC OSS9 October 2026
- D2-2Heracles2 October 2026
- L0-2away to MVV26 September 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch18 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2111 September 2026
Willem II
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
- L0-1Fortuna Sittard19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
What these results say
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Helmond Sport and Willem II in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | Eredivisie | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eerste Divisie · Eredivisie
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs Willem II
- 21 December 2025Helmond Sport 2–2 Willem IIEerste Divisie
- 30 September 2025Willem II 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 29 March 2024Helmond Sport 0–2 Willem IIEerste Divisie
- 15 December 2023Willem II 4–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 3 February 2023Willem II 5–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Helmond Sport carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.32 for Willem II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.28 for Willem II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Helmond Sport rate 0.48 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Willem II rate 0.58 and 1.66.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Helmond Sport the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Helmond Sport against 1.28 for Willem II. Helmond Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.66 for Willem II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Helmond Sport at home · Willem II away
League matches only, this season — Helmond Sport in the Eerste Divisie, Willem II in the Eredivisie. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Helmond Sport 10 in the Eerste Divisie, Willem II 8 in the Eredivisie.
Willem II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Helmond Sport have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Helmond Sport
- vs FC Eindhoven30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- vs FC Volendam6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- at Almere City FC14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 15%
- vs Dordrecht20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
Willem II
- at PSV Eindhoven31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 4%
- vs PEC Zwolle6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- at Twente22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 8%
- at Groningen27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.