New York Red Bulls
vs
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York Red Bulls 1–2 Inter Miami
The model makes it 26% New York Red Bulls, 23% draw, 51% Inter Miami — fair odds of 3.85, 4.35 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.51, Inter Miami 2.30.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Inter Miami are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- New York Red Bulls are 8th on 36 points from 28 games; Inter Miami are 2nd on 49 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New York Red Bulls have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to San Diego.
- Inter Miami have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to DC United.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Miami 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Inter Miami 2–2 New York Red Bulls.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
New York Red Bulls
- W4-1San Diego10 October 2026
- L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
Inter Miami
- W4-0DC United10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 36 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 68 | 50 | +18 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
New York Red Bulls
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
Inter Miami
Chance to finish in the top four · 96% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
- 11 April 2026Inter Miami 2–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 19 July 2025New York Red Bulls 1–5 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 3 May 2025Inter Miami 4–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2024Inter Miami 6–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024New York Red Bulls 4–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 26 August 2023New York Red Bulls 0–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2311
- L. Suárez143
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
New York Red Bulls carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.75 for Inter Miami. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for New York Red Bulls and 2.30 for Inter Miami. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York Red Bulls rate 0.58 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Miami rate 1.11 and 1.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for New York Red Bulls against 2.30 for Inter Miami. New York Red Bulls's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.42 for Inter Miami.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New York Red Bulls at home · Inter Miami away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New York Red Bulls 27, Inter Miami 27.
New York Red Bulls score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Inter Miami have let in 12 there.
Inter Miami score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); New York Red Bulls have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
New York Red Bulls
- at New England Revolution28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 26%
- at Nashville SC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 14%
- vs Atlanta United FC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 44%
Inter Miami
- vs FC Cincinnati28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 67%
- at New England Revolution2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs Charlotte7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.