SC Freiburg
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: SC Freiburg 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg
The model makes it 63% SC Freiburg, 22% draw, 15% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.22, VfL Wolfsburg 0.84.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: SC Freiburg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SC Freiburg are top in Bundesliga on 13 points from 5 games; VfL Wolfsburg are 5th in 2. Bundesliga on 12 points from 7 games.
- SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Schalke 04.
- VfL Wolfsburg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-4 draw away to 1. FC Nürnberg.
- Last 6 meetings: SC Freiburg 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended SC Freiburg 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- SC Freiburg68%
- Level after ninety minutes19%
- VfL Wolfsburg13%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 63% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
SC Freiburg
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
VfL Wolfsburg
- D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026
- W5-1SV Darmstadt 9818 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
- D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Wolfsburg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 2. Bundesliga | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 12 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Bundesliga · 2. Bundesliga
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
- 3 May 2026SC Freiburg 1–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 20 December 2025VfL Wolfsburg 3–4 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 26 April 2025VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 13 December 2024SC Freiburg 3–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 27 April 2024SC Freiburg 1–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 9 December 2023VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki40
- I. Matanović31
- M. Eggestein30
VfL Wolfsburg
GoalsAssists
- R. Glatzel41
- A. Bernhardsson33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SC Freiburg carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.68 for VfL Wolfsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for SC Freiburg and 0.84 for VfL Wolfsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Freiburg rate 1.21 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.81 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 0.84 for VfL Wolfsburg. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.13 for VfL Wolfsburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Freiburg at home · VfL Wolfsburg away
League matches only, this season — SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, VfL Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: SC Freiburg 5 in the Bundesliga, VfL Wolfsburg 7 in the 2. Bundesliga.
VfL Wolfsburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); SC Freiburg have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SC Freiburg
- at FC Augsburg31 Oct · Bundesligawin 41%
- at Trabzonspor5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
VfL Wolfsburg
- vs VfL Osnabrück31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 58%
- at Hertha BSC7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs Holstein Kiel21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 55%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.