Minnesota United FC
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Minnesota United FC 2–1 Sporting Kansas City
The model makes it 56% Minnesota United FC, 21% draw, 23% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 2.63, Sporting Kansas City 1.55.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Minnesota United FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Minnesota United FC are 13th on 31 points from 29 games; Sporting Kansas City are bottom on 22 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Minnesota United FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Colorado Rapids.
- Sporting Kansas City are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Nashville SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Minnesota United FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 July 2026, ended Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Minnesota United FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 56% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC
- D2-2away to Colorado Rapids15 October 2026
- D2-2Houston Dynamo11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
Sporting Kansas City
- L0-4away to Nashville SC15 October 2026
- D3-3Portland Timbers11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Minnesota United FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City
- 23 July 2026Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 7 February 2026Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Minnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs
- 5 October 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 22 September 2024Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 June 2024Minnesota United FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah152
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Minnesota United FC carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.27 for Sporting Kansas City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.63 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.55 for Sporting Kansas City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Minnesota United FC rate 0.71 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Kansas City rate 0.63 and 2.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Minnesota United FC the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Minnesota United FC against 1.55 for Sporting Kansas City. Minnesota United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.02 for Sporting Kansas City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Minnesota United FC at home · Sporting Kansas City away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Minnesota United FC 29, Sporting Kansas City 29.
Minnesota United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Sporting Kansas City have let in 14 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Minnesota United FC
- at Los Angeles FC2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 21%
- vs San Jose Earthquakes8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
Sporting Kansas City
- vs FC Dallas31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- at San Diego8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.