Aris Thessalonikis
vs
Atromitos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 Atromitos
The model makes it 40% Aris Thessalonikis, 28% draw, 32% Atromitos — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aris Thessalonikis 1.45, Atromitos 1.23.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aris Thessalonikis are 5th on 10 points from 6 games; Atromitos are 12th on 2 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- Aris Thessalonikis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Volos NFC.
- Atromitos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Asteras Tripolis.
- Last 6 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 Atromitos.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aris Thessalonikis at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
Aris Thessalonikis
- W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026
- D0-0Iraklis 190819 September 2026
- L0-2away to PAOK13 September 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
Atromitos
- L1-2away to Asteras Tripolis10 October 2026
- L1-2Kifisia19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Iraklis 190812 September 2026
- D1-1Kalamata6 September 2026
- L1-2PAOK30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aris Thessalonikis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atromitos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Atromitos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atromitos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aris Thessalonikis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
Atromitos
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
- 7 March 2026Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 13 September 2025Atromitos 1–2 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 26 April 2025Atromitos 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 13 April 2025Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 7 December 2024Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 18 August 2024Atromitos 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano30
- C. Kouamé20
Atromitos
GoalsAssists
- S. Moutoussamy20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aris Thessalonikis carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.58 for Atromitos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.23 for Atromitos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.74 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atromitos rate 0.79 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aris Thessalonikis a 0.1% chance of the title and Atromitos 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris Thessalonikis the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.23 for Atromitos. Aris Thessalonikis's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.35 for Atromitos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aris Thessalonikis at home · Atromitos away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Aris Thessalonikis 6, Atromitos 6.
Atromitos score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Aris Thessalonikis have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aris Thessalonikis
- at Levadiakos1 Nov · Super League 1win 37%
- vs Panetolikos7 Nov · Super League 1win 45%
- at Asteras Tripolis23 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus29 Nov · Super League 1win 22%
Atromitos
- vs Volos NFC2 Nov · Super League 1win 54%
- at OFI8 Nov · Super League 1win 32%
- at Levadiakos22 Nov · Super League 1win 38%
- vs Panathinaikos29 Nov · Super League 1win 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.