Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
Karlsruher SC
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 Karlsruher SC
The model makes it 64% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 21% draw, 15% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.31, Karlsruher SC 0.87.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Borussia Mönchengladbach are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom in Bundesliga on 0 points from 5 games; Karlsruher SC are 17th in 2. Bundesliga on 5 points from 7 games.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to 1. FC Köln.
- Karlsruher SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC St. Pauli.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach69%
- Level after ninety minutes19%
- Karlsruher SC12%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Mönchengladbach at 64% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
- L3-4FSV Mainz 0519 September 2026
- L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
- L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
- L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026
Karlsruher SC
- L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026
- L0-11. FC Nürnberg19 September 2026
- L0-3Energie Cottbus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hannover 964 September 2026
- L2-5VfL Wolfsburg29 August 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Mönchengladbach did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Borussia Mönchengladbach had three goals or more.
- Karlsruher SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Karlsruher SC in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 2. Bundesliga | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Bundesliga · 2. Bundesliga
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC
- 28 October 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 Karlsruher SCDFB Pokal
The two sides
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.33 for Karlsruher SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.87 for Karlsruher SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Mönchengladbach rate 0.83 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karlsruher SC rate 0.60 and 1.71.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 0.87 for Karlsruher SC. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.71 for Karlsruher SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home · Karlsruher SC away
League matches only, this season — Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga, Karlsruher SC in the 2. Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Borussia Mönchengladbach 5 in the Bundesliga, Karlsruher SC 7 in the 2. Bundesliga.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- vs SC Paderborn 0731 Oct · Bundesligawin 41%
- at Hamburger SV6 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
- vs Borussia Dortmund21 Nov · Bundesligawin 15%
- at Werder Bremen27 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
Karlsruher SC
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
- at VfL Bochum8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
- vs VfL Osnabrück22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- at Hertha BSC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.