Sportivo Ameliano
vs
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Olimpia
The model makes it 30% Sportivo Ameliano, 28% draw, 42% Olimpia — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sportivo Ameliano 1.15, Olimpia 1.48.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Olimpia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Sportivo Ameliano are 8th on 18 points from 14 games; Olimpia are 2nd on 27 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Ameliano are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to 2 de Mayo.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Rubio NU.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpia 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Olimpia 2–1 Sportivo Ameliano.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpia at 42% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia
Sportivo Ameliano
- L0-1away to 2 de Mayo12 October 2026
- L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026
- D1-1away to Nacional Asuncion25 September 2026
- D1-1away to Libertad Asuncion19 September 2026
- W1-0Club Sp. San Lorenzo11 September 2026
Olimpia
- D0-0away to Rubio NU11 October 2026
- D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion28 September 2026
- W3-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-0Sportivo Luqueno13 September 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Ameliano failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia
- 16 August 2026Olimpia 2–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 3 May 2026Olimpia 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 28 February 2026Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 4 October 2025Olimpia 2–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 27 July 2025Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 13 April 2025Olimpia 0–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Ameliano and Olimpia
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
- C. Ocampos42
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- A. Alcaraz71
- S. Quintana41
- H. Sandoval40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sportivo Ameliano carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.62 for Olimpia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.48 for Olimpia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sportivo Ameliano rate 0.58 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olimpia rate 0.77 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Ameliano a 0% chance of the title and Olimpia 31.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano against 1.48 for Olimpia. Sportivo Ameliano's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.22 for Olimpia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sportivo Ameliano at home · Olimpia away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Ameliano 14, Olimpia 14.
Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Olimpia have let in 0 there.
Olimpia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sportivo Ameliano
- at Deportivo Recoleta5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
- vs Club Guarani8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
- at Sportivo Trinidense15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 54%
Olimpia
- at Cerro Porteno5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 68%
- at Club Guarani15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.