Waldhof Mannheim
vs
Hoffenheim II
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Waldhof Mannheim 2–1 Hoffenheim II
The model makes it 43% Waldhof Mannheim, 26% draw, 31% Hoffenheim II — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Waldhof Mannheim 1.76, Hoffenheim II 1.40.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Waldhof Mannheim are 8th on 13 points from 9 games; Hoffenheim II are 7th on 13 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- Waldhof Mannheim have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to FC Ingolstadt 04.
- Hoffenheim II have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Stuttgart II.
- Last 4 meetings: Hoffenheim II 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Waldhof Mannheim 1–1 Hoffenheim II.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waldhof Mannheim at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II
Waldhof Mannheim
- L0-3FC Ingolstadt 0414 October 2026
- W5-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10 October 2026
- W2-0Preußen Münster20 September 2026
- L1-2Rot-Weiß Essen16 September 2026
- W1-0away to SV Wehen13 September 2026
Hoffenheim II
- L2-3away to Stuttgart II13 October 2026
- L2-3away to MSV Duisburg10 October 2026
- W1-0SV Meppen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0416 September 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Köln13 September 2026
What these results say
- Waldhof Mannheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hoffenheim II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hoffenheim II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hoffenheim II had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Waldhof Mannheim | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Waldhof Mannheim
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
Hoffenheim II
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Waldhof Mannheim vs Hoffenheim II
- 7 April 2026Waldhof Mannheim 1–1 Hoffenheim II3. Liga
- 2 November 2025Hoffenheim II 2–0 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 20 July 2024Waldhof Mannheim 1–4 Hoffenheim IIFriendlies Clubs
- 16 January 2023Waldhof Mannheim 1–4 Hoffenheim IIFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Waldhof Mannheim and Hoffenheim II
Waldhof Mannheim
GoalsAssists
- V. Thill10
Hoffenheim II
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Waldhof Mannheim carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.22 for Hoffenheim II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.40 for Hoffenheim II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Waldhof Mannheim rate 0.53 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hoffenheim II rate 0.58 and 2.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hoffenheim II, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Waldhof Mannheim a 0.7% chance of the title and Hoffenheim II 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waldhof Mannheim the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim against 1.40 for Hoffenheim II. Waldhof Mannheim's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.04 for Hoffenheim II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Waldhof Mannheim at home · Hoffenheim II away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Waldhof Mannheim 8, Hoffenheim II 9.
Waldhof Mannheim score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Hoffenheim II have let in 3 there.
Hoffenheim II score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Waldhof Mannheim have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Waldhof Mannheim
- at FC Saarbrücken1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs Fortuna Köln7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 43%
- at Alemannia Aachen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs Stuttgart II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 47%
Hoffenheim II
- vs FC Viktoria Köln31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- at Würzburger Kickers8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs Preußen Münster21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at Rot-Weiß Essen28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.