Stenhousemuir
vs
Dunfermline
Championship prediction
Our model says: Stenhousemuir 1–0 Dunfermline
The model makes it 41% Stenhousemuir, 30% draw, 29% Dunfermline — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.29, Dunfermline 0.99.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stenhousemuir are top on 22 points from 9 games; Dunfermline are 5th on 13 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Stenhousemuir have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Inverness CT.
- Dunfermline are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ayr Utd.
- Last 6 meetings: Dunfermline 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2025, ended Dunfermline 3–0 Stenhousemuir.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stenhousemuir at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline
Stenhousemuir
- L0-2away to Inverness CT10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ayr Utd25 September 2026
- W1-0Arbroath19 September 2026
- W1-0Partick15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Livingston4 September 2026
Dunfermline
- D1-1away to Ayr Utd10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Morton19 September 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arbroath5 September 2026
- W1-0Raith Rovers28 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Stenhousemuir had two goals or fewer.
- Stenhousemuir won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dunfermline went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dunfermline scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stenhousemuir
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 33% today
Dunfermline
Chance to finish in the top four · 71% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline
- 18 January 2025Dunfermline 3–0 StenhousemuirFA Cup
- 24 July 2021Dunfermline 4–1 StenhousemuirLeague Cup
- 5 March 2016Dunfermline 5–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
- 6 February 2016Stenhousemuir 0–3 DunfermlineLeague One
- 19 December 2015Dunfermline 1–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
- 19 September 2015Stenhousemuir 0–5 DunfermlineLeague One
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stenhousemuir carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.28 for Dunfermline. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Stenhousemuir and 0.99 for Dunfermline. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stenhousemuir rate 0.47 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dunfermline rate 0.54 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stenhousemuir a 33% chance of the title and Dunfermline 19.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stenhousemuir the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Stenhousemuir against 0.99 for Dunfermline. Stenhousemuir's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.69 for Dunfermline.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stenhousemuir at home · Dunfermline away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Stenhousemuir 9, Dunfermline 8.
Stenhousemuir score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Dunfermline have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Stenhousemuir
- vs Livingston30 Oct · Championshipwin 46%
- at Morton7 Nov · Championshipwin 53%
- vs Queen's Park14 Nov · Championshipwin 64%
Dunfermline
- vs Inverness CT31 Oct · Championshipwin 55%
- at Raith Rovers6 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.