Sheffield Wednesday
vs
Cambridge United
League One prediction
Our model says: Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 Cambridge United
The model makes it 40% Sheffield Wednesday, 28% draw, 32% Cambridge United — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sheffield Wednesday 1.40, Cambridge United 1.19.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sheffield Wednesday are 7th on 15 points from 8 games; Cambridge United are 5th on 16 points from 9 games — League One.
- Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Huddersfield.
- Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Blackpool.
- Last 5 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 January 2023, ended Sheffield Wednesday 5–0 Cambridge United.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sheffield Wednesday at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United
Sheffield Wednesday
- D2-2away to Huddersfield10 October 2026
- D0-0Stockport County19 September 2026
- D0-0Wigan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Peterborough5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wycombe1 September 2026
Cambridge United
- W1-0Blackpool10 October 2026
- D1-1AFC Wimbledon26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Oxford United19 September 2026
- W2-1Reading12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burton Albion5 September 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Wednesday went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sheffield Wednesday
Chance to finish in the top four · 22% today
Cambridge United
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United
- 2 January 2023Sheffield Wednesday 5–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 15 October 2022Cambridge United 0–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
- 12 March 2022Sheffield Wednesday 6–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 19 October 2021Cambridge United 1–1 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
- 9 August 2016Cambridge United 2–1 Sheffield WednesdayLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Sheffield Wednesday and Cambridge United
Sheffield Wednesday
GoalsAssists
- J. Lowe51
Cambridge United
GoalsAssists
- B. Knight31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sheffield Wednesday carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.34 for Cambridge United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.19 for Cambridge United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sheffield Wednesday rate 0.56 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cambridge United rate 0.59 and 1.64.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cambridge United, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Wednesday a 4.8% chance of the title and Cambridge United 5.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.19 for Cambridge United. Sheffield Wednesday's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.64 for Cambridge United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sheffield Wednesday at home · Cambridge United away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Sheffield Wednesday 8, Cambridge United 9.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Sheffield Wednesday
- vs Blackpool1 Nov · League Onewin 45%
- vs Plymouth14 Nov · League Onewin 37%
Cambridge United
- at Leyton Orient31 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- at Luton14 Nov · League Onewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.