Palestino
vs
Colo Colo
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Palestino 2–1 Colo Colo
The model makes it 38% Palestino, 25% draw, 37% Colo Colo — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Palestino 1.70, Colo Colo 1.65.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Palestino and Colo Colo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Palestino are 5th on 37 points from 24 games; Colo Colo are top on 54 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Palestino have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Deportes Limache.
- Colo Colo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat away to Coquimbo Unido.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Colo Colo 0–1 Palestino.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Palestino vs Colo Colo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palestino at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Palestino vs Colo Colo
Palestino
- D2-2away to Deportes Limache11 October 2026
- L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Concepcion6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cobresal28 August 2026
- W1-0away to O'Higgins23 August 2026
Colo Colo
- L2-5away to Coquimbo Unido11 October 2026
- D1-1Concepción13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Huachipato6 September 2026
- W5-1Audax Italiano30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Universidad de Chile23 August 2026
What these results say
- Palestino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palestino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colo Colo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colo Colo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Colo Colo.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 37 |
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Palestino
Chance to finish in the top four · 28% today
Colo Colo
Chance to win the league · 94% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Palestino vs Colo Colo
- 19 April 2026Colo Colo 0–1 PalestinoPrimera División
- 22 August 2025Palestino 0–0 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 27 March 2025Colo Colo 1–1 PalestinoPrimera División
- 20 October 2024Palestino 2–3 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 19 May 2024Colo Colo 2–0 PalestinoPrimera División
- 8 October 2023Palestino 1–0 Colo ColoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Palestino and Colo Colo
Palestino
GoalsAssists
- N. Da Silva82
Colo Colo
GoalsAssists
- J. Correa135
- M. Romero81
- L. Hernández74
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Palestino carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.61 for Colo Colo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Palestino and 1.65 for Colo Colo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palestino rate 0.70 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colo Colo rate 0.89 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Colo Colo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palestino a 0% chance of the title and Colo Colo 93.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palestino the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Palestino against 1.65 for Colo Colo. Palestino's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.45 for Colo Colo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Palestino at home · Colo Colo away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Palestino 24, Colo Colo 24.
Palestino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Colo Colo have let in 4 there.
Colo Colo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Palestino have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Palestino
- at Concepción1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 28%
- at Deportes La Serena8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Union La Calera22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at Audax Italiano29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Everton de Vina6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
Colo Colo
- vs Universidad de Concepcion1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 68%
- at Nublense8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- vs Universidad Catolica22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- vs Deportes La Serena29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 63%
- at Cobresal6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.