Manchester United
vs
Bournemouth
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Manchester United 2–1 Bournemouth
The model makes it 55% Manchester United, 23% draw, 22% Bournemouth — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Manchester United 2.20, Bournemouth 1.23.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Manchester United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Manchester United are 13th on 6 points from 6 games; Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Manchester United are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tottenham.
- Bournemouth have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Chelsea.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 20 March 2026, ended Bournemouth 2–2 Manchester United.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester United at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Manchester United
- D1-1Tottenham10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fulham20 September 2026
- L0-1Manchester City13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Everton6 September 2026
- W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026
Bournemouth
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
- L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
What these results say
- Manchester United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Manchester United
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
Bournemouth
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Manchester United
Bournemouth and Manchester United have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Bournemouth on 20 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 26 goals, an average of 4.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 20 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueBournemouth 2–2 Manchester United - 15 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueManchester United 4–4 Bournemouth - 31 Jul 2025
Premier League - Summer SeriesManchester United 4–1 Bournemouth - 27 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueBournemouth 1–1 Manchester United - 22 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueManchester United 0–3 Bournemouth - 13 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueBournemouth 2–2 Manchester United
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| Manchester United | 1.36 | 0.86 |
Leading scorers: Manchester United and Bournemouth
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Fernandes31
- B. Mbeumo30
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- M. Tavernier30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Manchester United carry a model rating of 7.08 against 6.86 for Bournemouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Manchester United and 1.23 for Bournemouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Manchester United rate 1.36 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bournemouth rate 1.03 and 1.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Manchester United a 0.3% chance of the title and Bournemouth 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester United the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Manchester United against 1.23 for Bournemouth. Manchester United's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.01 for Bournemouth.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Manchester United at home · Bournemouth away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Manchester UnitedBournemouth
Manchester United are 12th after 6 Premier League matches (between 10th and 19th so far); Bournemouth are 17th after 6 (between 12th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Manchester United 6, Bournemouth 6.
Manchester United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Bournemouth have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Manchester United
- at Chelsea31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs AS Roma3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
- vs Aston Villa8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 48%
Bournemouth
- vs Aston Villa28 Oct · League Cupwin 39%
- vs Leeds31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Sparta Praha5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.