FK Košice
vs
Žilina
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Košice 2–1 Žilina
The model makes it 41% FK Košice, 23% draw, 36% Žilina — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FK Košice 2.08, Žilina 1.93.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FK Košice are 6th on 13 points from 9 games; Žilina are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games — Super Liga.
- FK Košice have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Komárno.
- Žilina are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Ružomberok.
- Last 6 meetings: Žilina 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Žilina 4–4 FK Košice.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Košice vs Žilina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Košice at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FK Košice vs Žilina
FK Košice
- D1-1Komárno10 October 2026
- W2-0Ružomberok19 September 2026
- L2-5away to Spartak Trnava12 September 2026
- W3-0Dukla Banská Bystrica6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Podbrezová29 August 2026
Žilina
- D2-2away to Ružomberok11 October 2026
- W2-1AS Trencin19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Slovan Bratislava13 September 2026
- W3-1Podbrezová5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Spartak Trnava30 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Košice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Žilina went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Žilina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Žilina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FK Košice | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Žilina | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FK Košice
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
Žilina
Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FK Košice vs Žilina
- 26 July 2026Žilina 4–4 FK KošiceSuper Liga
- 1 May 2026Žilina 3–1 FK KošiceCup
- 22 February 2026FK Košice 2–2 ŽilinaSuper Liga
- 4 October 2025Žilina 4–1 FK KošiceSuper Liga
- 10 May 2025FK Košice 3–2 ŽilinaSuper Liga
- 23 April 2025Žilina 0–0 FK KošiceSuper Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FK Košice carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.46 for Žilina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for FK Košice and 1.93 for Žilina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Košice rate 0.74 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Žilina rate 0.78 and 1.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Žilina, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Košice a 0.1% chance of the title and Žilina 4.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Košice the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for FK Košice against 1.93 for Žilina. FK Košice's attack/defence rating is 0.74/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.73 for Žilina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FK Košice at home · Žilina away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: FK Košice 9, Žilina 10.
Žilina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FK Košice have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FK Košice
- vs Dunajska Streda28 Oct · Super Ligawin 23%
- at AS Trencin31 Oct · Super Ligawin 42%
- at Dunajska Streda7 Nov · Super Ligawin 12%
- vs Skalica21 Nov · Super Ligawin 55%
Žilina
- vs Zemplín Michalovce31 Oct · Super Ligawin 56%
- at Skalica7 Nov · Super Ligawin 43%
- vs Dukla Banská Bystrica21 Nov · Super Ligawin 65%
- at Komárno28 Nov · Super Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.