26 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades, Santiago del Estero
Referee: Pablo Echavarria
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Central Cordoba de Santiago 0-5 Velez Sarsfield.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Central Cordoba de Santiago, 31% draw, 39% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Velez Sarsfield at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Central Cordoba de Santiago0%Draw1%Velez Sarsfield99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽M. Pellegriniassist: R. Martinez
21'
⚽R. Martinez
🔁M. Iacobellisout: D. Barrera
46'
🔁J. Pignaniout: S. Moyano
55'
58'
⚽R. Martinezassist: J. Policella
61'
⚽L. Robertone
62'
🔁J. Policellaout: T. Aguirre
62'
🔁M. Pellegriniout: S. Escobar
🔁M. Santosout: M. Cuitino
75'
🔁H. Tijanovichout: T. Ramirez
75'
78'
🔁L. Robertoneout: C. Baeza
78'
🔁M. Lanziniout: D. Valdes
A. R. Maciel
82'
83'
⚽R. Martinez (pen)
84'
🔁R. Martinezout: A. Veron
87'
R. Aliendro
🔁L. Sequeiraout: I. Santillan
88'

Match stats — Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield

45%Possession55%
12Shots22
2On target9
4Corners2
0.57xG3.24

Goals against chances

Central Cordoba de Santiago0 from 0.57 xGless than the chances were worth
Velez Sarsfield5 from 3.24 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Central Cordoba de Santiago 5-3-2
  • 1A. AguerreG
  • 20F. MartinezD
  • 42J. PignaniD
  • 2A. R. MacielD
  • 32N. GarridoD
  • 23D. CaceresD
  • 10M. IacobellisM
  • 22M. VeraM
  • 11H. TijanovichM
  • 27M. SantosF
  • 28L. SequeiraF
Substitutes
  • 25J. VallejosG
  • 33S. MoyanoD
  • 13J. GomezD
  • 17Y. CasermeiroD
  • 3L. MarchiD
  • 44J. IbanezF
  • 41T. RamirezD
  • 55J. CardozoM
  • 30F. RodriguezM
Coach: Sebastian Dominguez
Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. MarchioriG
  • 4J. GarciaD
  • 32T. SilveroD
  • 16L. MagallanD
  • 3E. GomezD
  • 29R. AliendroM
  • 8L. RobertoneM
  • 11M. PellegriniM
  • 22M. LanziniM
  • 37J. Policella
  • 77R. MartinezF
Substitutes
  • 23F. SanguinettiG
  • 21J. GordonD
  • 19L. CristaldoD
  • 18S. EscobarD
  • 10D. ValdesM
  • 5C. BaezaM
  • 48L. FelerM
  • 17A. VeronF
  • 35M. AriasF
Coach: Guillermo Schelotto

Form going into Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield

Central Cordoba de Santiago

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys19 October 2026
  • D2-2Estudiantes La Plata10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra5 October 2026
  • D2-2Defensa Y Justicia18 September 2026

Velez Sarsfield

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Lanus12 October 2026
  • D2-2Platense5 October 2026
  • W3-2Tigre21 September 2026

What these results say

  • Central Cordoba de Santiago did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Central Cordoba de Santiago scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Central Cordoba de Santiago conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Central Cordoba de Santiago142481123-1210
2Velez Sarsfield147612313+1027

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield

  • 14 April 2026Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 September 2025Velez Sarsfield 2–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoSuper Copa
  • 12 December 2024Velez Sarsfield 0–1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoCopa Argentina
  • 29 July 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 22 March 2023Velez Sarsfield 4–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 October 2022Velez Sarsfield 3–1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield record →

Leading scorers: Central Cordoba de Santiago and Velez Sarsfield

Central Cordoba de Santiago

GoalsAssists

  • M. Santos92

Velez Sarsfield

GoalsAssists

  • R. Martínez132

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Velez Sarsfield won 5–0 at Central Cordoba de Santiago. The model had made a win for Velez Sarsfield its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Pellegrini 7' for Velez Sarsfield, R. Martinez 21' for Velez Sarsfield, R. Martinez 58' for Velez Sarsfield, L. Robertone 61' for Velez Sarsfield, R. Martinez (penalty) 83' for Velez Sarsfield. Sent off: A. R. Maciel (Central Cordoba de Santiago) 82', R. Aliendro (Velez Sarsfield) 87'. On expected goals it finished 0.57–3.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Central Cordoba de Santiago a 85.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 70.2% after a win, 87.1% after a draw, 95.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.4%, 9.9 points higher than before the match.

For Velez Sarsfield the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 3.8% going in: 7.4% after a win, 1.7% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.