Galatasaray
vs
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Galatasaray 2–1 Fenerbahçe
The model makes it 40% Galatasaray, 23% draw, 37% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.06, Fenerbahçe 1.94.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
A tight game: Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Galatasaray are top on 16 points from 7 games; Fenerbahçe are 4th on 13 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Galatasaray have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kasımpaşa.
- Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Rizespor.
- Last 6 meetings: Galatasaray 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Galatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahçe.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Galatasaray at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
Galatasaray
- W3-1Kasımpaşa9 October 2026
- L0-4away to Trabzonspor19 September 2026
- W1-0Kocaelispor13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
- W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
Fenerbahçe
- W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026
- W8-0Eyüpspor20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
What these results say
- Galatasaray won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Galatasaray scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Galatasaray conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Galatasaray
Chance to win the league · 30% today
Fenerbahçe
Chance to win the league · 32% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray have met 6 times in the records we hold, Galatasaray has won 3 of them to Fenerbahçe's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Galatasaray won the last one 3–0 on 26 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Apr 2026
Süper LigGalatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahçe - 10 Jan 2026
Super CupGalatasaray 0–2 Fenerbahçe - 1 Dec 2025
Süper LigFenerbahçe 1–1 Galatasaray - 2 Apr 2025
Türkiye KupasıFenerbahçe 1–2 Galatasaray - 24 Feb 2025
Süper LigGalatasaray 0–0 Fenerbahçe - 21 Sep 2024
Süper LigFenerbahçe 1–3 Galatasaray
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1.37 | 0.95 |
| Galatasaray | 1.31 | 1.08 |
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe
Galatasaray
GoalsAssists
- V. Osimhen63
- Gabriel Sara22
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi61
- M. Greenwood42
- O. Aydın23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Galatasaray carry a model rating of 6.96 against 7.04 for Fenerbahçe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Galatasaray and 1.94 for Fenerbahçe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Galatasaray rate 1.31 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fenerbahçe rate 1.37 and 0.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Galatasaray a 29.8% chance of the title and Fenerbahçe 31.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galatasaray the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Galatasaray against 1.94 for Fenerbahçe. Galatasaray's attack/defence rating is 1.31/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.95 for Fenerbahçe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Galatasaray at home · Fenerbahçe away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
Galatasaray are 1st after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Fenerbahçe are 3rd after 7 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Galatasaray 7, Fenerbahçe 7.
Galatasaray score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Galatasaray have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Galatasaray
- at Konyaspor30 Oct · Süper Ligwin 52%
- vs VfB Stuttgart3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 48%
- vs Amed7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 53%
Fenerbahçe
- vs Göztepe31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 70%
- vs Liverpool4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.