Legia Warszawa
vs
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Legia Warszawa 2–1 Lech Poznan
The model makes it 38% Legia Warszawa, 28% draw, 34% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 1.43, Lech Poznan 1.31.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 22 points from 10 games; Lech Poznan are 2nd on 22 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Wisla Krakow.
- Lech Poznan have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Slask Wroclaw.
- Last 6 meetings: Lech Poznan 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Lech Poznan 4–0 Legia Warszawa.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Legia Warszawa at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
- W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia20 September 2026
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
Lech Poznan
- W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026
- W5-1Radomiak Radom20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
What these results say
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 22 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Legia Warszawa
Chance to win the league · 16% today
Lech Poznan
Chance to win the league · 48% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan
- 26 April 2026Lech Poznan 4–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2025Legia Warszawa 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 13 July 2025Lech Poznan 1–2 Legia WarszawaSuper Cup
- 11 May 2025Legia Warszawa 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 10 November 2024Lech Poznan 5–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 12 May 2024Lech Poznan 1–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
GoalsAssists
- R. Augustyniak42
- R. Adamski40
- Ł. Zjawiński40
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
- P. Wålemark43
- Pablo Rodríguez43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Legia Warszawa carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.93 for Lech Poznan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.31 for Lech Poznan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Legia Warszawa rate 0.90 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lech Poznan rate 1.13 and 0.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lech Poznan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Legia Warszawa a 16% chance of the title and Lech Poznan 48%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Legia Warszawa against 1.31 for Lech Poznan. Legia Warszawa's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.96 for Lech Poznan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Legia Warszawa at home · Lech Poznan away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Legia WarszawaLech Poznan
Legia Warszawa are 3rd after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Lech Poznan are 1st after 9 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Legia Warszawa 10, Lech Poznan 9.
Legia Warszawa score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 1 there.
Lech Poznan score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Legia Warszawa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Legia Warszawa
- at Gornik Zabrze31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Raków Częstochowa7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 59%
- at Wisla Plock21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 47%
- vs Wieczysta Kraków28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
Lech Poznan
- vs Wisla Krakow31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Benfica5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.