DC United
vs
FC Cincinnati
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: DC United 2–1 FC Cincinnati
The model makes it 39% DC United, 24% draw, 37% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.56, 4.17 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: DC United 1.93, FC Cincinnati 1.89.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: DC United and FC Cincinnati are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- DC United are 12th on 30 points from 27 games; FC Cincinnati are 9th on 36 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- DC United are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Inter Miami.
- FC Cincinnati have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Atlanta United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Cincinnati 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 May 2025, ended FC Cincinnati 1–2 DC United.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: DC United vs FC Cincinnati
Has the model earned this number?
It puts DC United at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into DC United vs FC Cincinnati
DC United
- L0-4away to Inter Miami10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
FC Cincinnati
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
What these results say
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- DC United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for DC United had three goals or more.
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
- FC Cincinnati failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 30 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 65 | -7 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
DC United
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 42% today
FC Cincinnati
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: DC United vs FC Cincinnati
- 31 May 2025FC Cincinnati 1–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025DC United 0–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 3 July 2024DC United 2–3 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 10 March 2024FC Cincinnati 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 24 June 2023DC United 3–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 6 May 2023FC Cincinnati 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: DC United and FC Cincinnati
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo140
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey163
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
DC United carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.49 for FC Cincinnati. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for DC United and 1.89 for FC Cincinnati. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
DC United rate 0.57 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Cincinnati rate 0.86 and 1.85.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives DC United the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for DC United against 1.89 for FC Cincinnati. DC United's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.85 for FC Cincinnati.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
DC United at home · FC Cincinnati away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: DC United 26, FC Cincinnati 26.
DC United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Cincinnati have let in 13 there.
FC Cincinnati score most often in the 76–90 minute window (20 goals); DC United have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
DC United
- at Toronto FC28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- at Columbus Crew31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 25%
FC Cincinnati
- at Inter Miami28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 17%
- vs Philadelphia Union31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.