Felgueiras 1932
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Felgueiras 1932 1–0 Lusitânia Lourosa
The model makes it 38% Felgueiras 1932, 29% draw, 33% Lusitânia Lourosa — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Felgueiras 1932 1.31, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.20.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Felgueiras 1932 are 14th on 6 points from 7 games; Lusitânia Lourosa are top on 17 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Felgueiras 1932 are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Benfica B.
- Lusitânia Lourosa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Chaves.
- Last 6 meetings: Felgueiras 1932 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Felgueiras 1932.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Felgueiras 1932 at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa
Felgueiras 1932
- L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
- L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vizela6 September 2026
- W2-1Chaves30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Farense24 August 2026
Lusitânia Lourosa
- D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026
- W2-1AVS7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Academica29 August 2026
- D2-2Torreense22 August 2026
What these results say
- Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Felgueiras 1932
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Lusitânia Lourosa
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa
- 7 February 2026Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
- 30 August 2025Felgueiras 1932 3–1 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
- 28 April 2024Felgueiras 1932 2–0 Lusitânia LourosaLiga 3
- 2 March 2024Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 Felgueiras 1932Liga 3
- 5 November 2023Felgueiras 1932 2–1 Lusitânia LourosaLiga 3
- 8 August 2023Lusitânia Lourosa 0–0 Felgueiras 1932Liga 3
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Felgueiras 1932 carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.47 for Lusitânia Lourosa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.20 for Lusitânia Lourosa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Felgueiras 1932 rate 0.52 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lusitânia Lourosa rate 0.72 and 1.55.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lusitânia Lourosa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Felgueiras 1932 a 0.1% chance of the title and Lusitânia Lourosa 11.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Felgueiras 1932 the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Felgueiras 1932 against 1.20 for Lusitânia Lourosa. Felgueiras 1932's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.55 for Lusitânia Lourosa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Felgueiras 1932 at home · Lusitânia Lourosa away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Felgueiras 1932 7, Lusitânia Lourosa 7.
Lusitânia Lourosa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Felgueiras 1932 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Felgueiras 1932
- at Tondela30 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 19%
- vs Leixoes7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Amarante15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs FC Porto B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Portimonense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 28%
Lusitânia Lourosa
- vs Farense1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Feirense8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at Penafiel15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs Vizela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- at Benfica B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.