Liverpool
vs
Brighton
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Liverpool 1–2 Brighton
The model makes it 36% Liverpool, 26% draw, 38% Brighton — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Liverpool 1.50, Brighton 1.58.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Liverpool and Brighton are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Liverpool are 9th on 9 points from 6 games; Brighton are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Liverpool have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Manchester City.
- Brighton are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Sunderland.
- Last 6 meetings: Liverpool 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Brighton 2–1 Liverpool.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Liverpool vs Brighton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Liverpool vs Brighton
Liverpool
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bournemouth20 September 2026
- D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
Brighton
- W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
What these results say
- Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Liverpool
Chance to finish in the top four · 27% today
Brighton
Chance to finish in the top four · 69% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Liverpool
Brighton and Liverpool have met 6 times in the records we hold, Liverpool has won 4 of them to Brighton's 2.
The record
Brighton won the last one 2–1 on 21 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
| Liverpool | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueBrighton 2–1 Liverpool - 14 Feb 2026
FA CupLiverpool 3–0 Brighton - 13 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–0 Brighton - 19 May 2025
Premier LeagueBrighton 3–2 Liverpool - 2 Nov 2024
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–1 Brighton - 30 Oct 2024
League CupBrighton 2–3 Liverpool
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Brighton
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak40
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß34
- M. De Cuyper22
- C. Kostoulas21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Liverpool carry a model rating of 7.04 against 7.14 for Brighton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Liverpool and 1.58 for Brighton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Liverpool rate 1.23 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brighton rate 1.35 and 0.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Liverpool a 0.5% chance of the title and Brighton 9.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Liverpool against 1.58 for Brighton. Liverpool's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.35/0.76 for Brighton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Liverpool at home · Brighton away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LiverpoolBrighton
Liverpool are 9th after 6 Premier League matches (between 5th and 10th so far); Brighton are 3rd after 6 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Liverpool 6, Brighton 6.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Brighton have let in 0 there.
Brighton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Liverpool have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Liverpool
- vs Chelsea28 Oct · League Cupwin 53%
- vs Arsenal1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Fenerbahçe4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 29%
Brighton
- at Manchester City28 Oct · League Cupwin 20%
- at Manchester City31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- at Getafe5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.