Regular Season - 11 · 24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka HNL postponed match

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
PostponedNot played

This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.

Before the match was called off the model made it 60% Dinamo Zagreb, 23% draw, 17% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 2.17, HNK Rijeka 0.92.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Dinamo Zagreb: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

54%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Dinamo Zagreb win Draw HNK Rijeka win
  1. 2–011%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–110%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 3–08%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–05%

Scores read Dinamo Zagreb first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 40%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

Dinamo Zagreb

  • L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026
  • W3-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb20 September 2026
  • L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
  • W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026

HNK Rijeka

  • L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026
  • W3-0HNK Hajduk Split20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
  • W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
  • HNK Rijeka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Dinamo Zagreb85121811+716
5HNK Rijeka84221411+314

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

  • 13 May 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 HNK RijekaCup
  • 18 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 8 February 2026HNK Rijeka 0–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 1 November 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 16 August 2025HNK Rijeka 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 27 April 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Rijeka

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo103

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • Tiago Dantas32
  • T. Fruk23

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Dinamo Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.49 for HNK Rijeka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.92 for HNK Rijeka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.04 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Rijeka rate 0.65 and 1.33.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Zagreb a 63.8% chance of the title and HNK Rijeka 3.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 0.92 for HNK Rijeka. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.33 for HNK Rijeka.