Flamengo
vs
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Flamengo 1–0 Atletico Mineiro
The model makes it 58% Flamengo, 25% draw, 17% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Flamengo 1.87, Atletico Mineiro 0.79.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Flamengo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Flamengo are top on 64 points from 30 games; Atletico Mineiro are 7th on 47 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Fluminense.
- Atletico Mineiro are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Santos.
- Last 6 meetings: Flamengo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Atletico Mineiro 0–4 Flamengo.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo
- W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Santos8 October 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
- W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
Atletico Mineiro
- W2-1Santos11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Paranaense8 October 2026
- W1-0RB Bragantino3 October 2026
- D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | +33 | 64 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Flamengo
Chance to win the league · 59% today
Atletico Mineiro
Chance to finish in the top four
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Flamengo
Atletico Mineiro and Flamengo have met 6 times in the records we hold, Flamengo has won 3 of them to Atletico Mineiro's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Flamengo won the last one 4–0 on 26 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Flamengo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 9 goals, an average of 1.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Apr 2026
Serie AAtletico Mineiro 0–4 Flamengo - 26 Nov 2025
Serie AAtletico Mineiro 1–1 Flamengo - 6 Aug 2025
Copa Do BrasilAtletico Mineiro 0–1 Flamengo - 1 Aug 2025
Copa Do BrasilFlamengo 0–1 Atletico Mineiro - 27 Jul 2025
Serie AFlamengo 1–0 Atletico Mineiro - 13 Nov 2024
Serie AFlamengo 0–0 Atletico Mineiro
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 0.89 | 0.99 |
| Flamengo | 1.19 | 0.79 |
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro166
- Samuel Lino97
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Flamengo carry a model rating of 7.06 against 6.8 for Atletico Mineiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Flamengo and 0.79 for Atletico Mineiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Flamengo rate 1.19 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Mineiro rate 0.89 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Flamengo a 58.7% chance of the title and Atletico Mineiro 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Flamengo against 0.79 for Atletico Mineiro. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.99 for Atletico Mineiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Flamengo at home · Atletico Mineiro away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Flamengo 30, Atletico Mineiro 30.
Flamengo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Atletico Mineiro have let in 4 there.
Atletico Mineiro score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Flamengo have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Flamengo
- at Vasco da Gama29 Oct · Serie Awin 45%
- vs Gremio4 Nov · Serie Awin 67%
Atletico Mineiro
- vs Cruzeiro29 Oct · Serie Awin 45%
- at Botafogo5 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.