Velež
vs
BSK Banja Luka
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Velež 2–1 BSK Banja Luka
The model makes it 43% Velež, 27% draw, 30% BSK Banja Luka — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Velež 1.59, BSK Banja Luka 1.26.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Velež are 9th on 8 points from 9 games; BSK Banja Luka are 8th on 8 points from 9 games — Premijer Liga.
- Velež have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Siroki Brijeg.
- BSK Banja Luka are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Borac Banja Luka.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Velež vs BSK Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velež at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Velež vs BSK Banja Luka
Velež
- D0-0Siroki Brijeg9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
- W1-0FK Sarajevo13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo6 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Bijeljina2 September 2026
BSK Banja Luka
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka10 October 2026
- D4-4Radnik Bijeljina19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Siroki Brijeg12 September 2026
- W3-2Čelik5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zrinjski1 September 2026
What these results say
- Velež failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Velež had two goals or fewer.
- BSK Banja Luka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Velež
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 57% today
BSK Banja Luka
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Velež vs BSK Banja Luka
- 16 August 2026BSK Banja Luka 2–0 VeležPremijer Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Velež carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.08 for BSK Banja Luka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Velež and 1.26 for BSK Banja Luka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Velež rate 0.39 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BSK Banja Luka rate 0.53 and 2.50.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour BSK Banja Luka, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velež the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Velež against 1.26 for BSK Banja Luka. Velež's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.5 for BSK Banja Luka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Velež at home · BSK Banja Luka away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Velež 9, BSK Banja Luka 9.
Velež score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); BSK Banja Luka have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Velež
- at Sloga Doboj31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 35%
- vs Čelik7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 38%
- at Radnik Bijeljina21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 37%
BSK Banja Luka
- vs FK Sarajevo31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 31%
- at Sloga Doboj7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 39%
- vs Zrinjski21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 22%
- at Čelik28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.