Celtic
vs
Dundee United
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Celtic 2–0 Dundee United
The model makes it 70% Celtic, 18% draw, 12% Dundee United — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Celtic 2.69, Dundee United 0.84.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Celtic are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Celtic are top on 21 points from 8 games; Dundee United are 6th on 11 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Celtic have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Motherwell.
- Dundee United are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Hibernian.
- Last 6 meetings: Celtic 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Dundee United 0–4 Celtic.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celtic vs Dundee United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 70% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celtic vs Dundee United
Celtic
- W2-0away to Motherwell11 October 2026
- L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
- W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
- W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
- W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
Dundee United
- W1-0Hibernian10 October 2026
- W3-0away to St Mirren19 September 2026
- D1-1Falkirk5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Motherwell2 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kilmarnock29 August 2026
What these results say
- Celtic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundee United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 21 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celtic vs Dundee United
- 15 August 2026Dundee United 0–4 CelticLeague Cup
- 22 March 2026Dundee United 2–0 CelticPremiership
- 10 January 2026Celtic 4–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 17 December 2025Dundee United 2–1 CelticPremiership
- 26 April 2025Dundee United 0–5 CelticPremiership
- 15 February 2025Celtic 3–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers: Celtic and Dundee United
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán43
- B. Nygren43
- K. Høgh31
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- J. Randall22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Celtic carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.34 for Dundee United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.69 goals for Celtic and 0.84 for Dundee United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celtic rate 0.96 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee United rate 0.60 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celtic a 65.8% chance of the title and Dundee United 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Celtic against 0.84 for Dundee United. Celtic's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.67 for Dundee United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celtic at home · Dundee United away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CelticDundee United
Celtic are 1st after 8 Premiership matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Dundee United are 4th after 8 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Celtic 8, Dundee United 8.
Celtic score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Dundee United have let in 3 there.
Dundee United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Celtic have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Celtic
- at Falkirk31 Oct · Premiershipwin 57%
Dundee United
- vs Heart of Midlothian31 Oct · Premiershipwin 27%
- vs Motherwell7 Nov · Premiershipwin 38%
- at Hibernian21 Nov · Premiershipwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.