Hellas Verona
vs
Pisa
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Hellas Verona 1–0 Pisa
The model makes it 44% Hellas Verona, 29% draw, 27% Pisa — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hellas Verona 1.40, Pisa 0.98.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hellas Verona are 9th on 7 points from 6 games; Pisa are 7th on 10 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Hellas Verona have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Modena.
- Pisa have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Vicenza Virtus.
- Last 4 meetings: all 4 drawn; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Hellas Verona 0–0 Pisa.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hellas Verona vs Pisa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hellas Verona at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hellas Verona vs Pisa
Hellas Verona
- L2-3away to Modena11 October 2026
- W2-1Vicenza Virtus20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
- W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Padova29 August 2026
Pisa
- W3-0away to Vicenza Virtus10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Mantova20 September 2026
- L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
- W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
- W2-1Catanzaro30 August 2026
What these results say
- Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hellas Verona had three goals or more.
- Pisa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Pisa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hellas Verona
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
Pisa
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hellas Verona vs Pisa
- 6 February 2026Hellas Verona 0–0 PisaSerie A
- 18 October 2025Pisa 0–0 Hellas VeronaSerie A
- 26 March 2017Hellas Verona 1–1 PisaSerie B
- 25 October 2016Pisa 0–0 Hellas VeronaSerie B
Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Pisa
Hellas Verona
GoalsAssists
- D. Mosquera40
- S. Mulattieri21
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- F. Pittarello21
- A. Calabresi20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hellas Verona carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.62 for Pisa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Hellas Verona and 0.98 for Pisa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hellas Verona rate 0.76 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pisa rate 0.77 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pisa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hellas Verona a 6.1% chance of the title and Pisa 3.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hellas Verona the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hellas Verona against 0.98 for Pisa. Hellas Verona's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.23 for Pisa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hellas Verona at home · Pisa away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Hellas VeronaPisa
Hellas Verona are 9th after 6 Serie B matches (between 5th and 16th so far); Pisa are 7th after 6 (between 5th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Hellas Verona 6, Pisa 6.
Hellas Verona score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Pisa have let in 1 there.
Pisa score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Hellas Verona have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hellas Verona
- at Juve Stabia28 Oct · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Carrarese1 Nov · Serie Bwin 50%
- at Mantova7 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Cesena21 Nov · Serie Bwin 55%
Pisa
- vs Palermo28 Oct · Serie Bwin 37%
- at Avellino1 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Sudtirol7 Nov · Serie Bwin 43%
- at Empoli21 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.