Orgryte IS
vs
Mjallby AIF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Orgryte IS 1–2 Mjallby AIF
The model makes it 33% Orgryte IS, 26% draw, 41% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 1.43, Mjallby AIF 1.68.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Mjallby AIF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Orgryte IS are 15th on 15 points from 23 games; Mjallby AIF are 12th on 23 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Orgryte IS have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to BK Hacken.
- Mjallby AIF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Degerfors IF.
- Last 4 meetings: Mjallby AIF 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Mjallby AIF 0–2 Orgryte IS.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mjallby AIF at 41% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF
Orgryte IS
- L0-3away to BK Hacken11 October 2026
- L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
Mjallby AIF
- D1-1Degerfors IF10 October 2026
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
What these results say
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 15 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF
- 11 April 2026Mjallby AIF 0–2 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 27 February 2026Orgryte IS 0–3 Mjallby AIFSvenska Cupen
- 17 August 2019Orgryte IS 1–1 Mjallby AIFSuperettan
- 4 May 2019Mjallby AIF 2–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Mjallby AIF
GoalsAssists
- J. Bergström90
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Orgryte IS carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.32 for Mjallby AIF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Orgryte IS and 1.68 for Mjallby AIF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orgryte IS rate 0.52 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mjallby AIF rate 0.59 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mjallby AIF the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 1.68 for Mjallby AIF. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.69 for Mjallby AIF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orgryte IS at home · Mjallby AIF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Orgryte IS 23, Mjallby AIF 23.
Orgryte IS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Mjallby AIF have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Orgryte IS
- at IF Elfsborg1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 15%
- vs Vasteras SK FK7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%
- vs Kalmar FF23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 39%
Mjallby AIF
- vs Kalmar FF2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.