FC Eindhoven
vs
FC Volendam
KNVB Beker prediction
Our model says: FC Eindhoven 0–1 FC Volendam
The model makes it 30% FC Eindhoven, 28% draw, 42% FC Volendam — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Eindhoven 1.18, FC Volendam 1.50.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Volendam: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Eindhoven are 15th on 11 points from 10 games; FC Volendam are 8th on 15 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC Eindhoven are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Almere City FC.
- FC Volendam have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitesse.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Volendam 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 January 2025, ended FC Eindhoven 1–3 FC Volendam.
Chance to go through
KNVB Beker Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- FC Eindhoven29%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- FC Volendam44%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More KNVB Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Volendam at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam
FC Eindhoven
- L0-3away to Almere City FC9 October 2026
- D2-2De Graafschap3 October 2026
- L2-4away to NAC Breda26 September 2026
- W3-1Emmen18 September 2026
- W2-1Dordrecht11 September 2026
FC Volendam
- W2-0Vitesse9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026
- W3-2VVV Venlo26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Jong AZ18 September 2026
- W2-0Den Bosch13 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Eindhoven had three goals or more.
- FC Eindhoven scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Volendam scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Volendam | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam
- 10 January 2025FC Eindhoven 1–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 25 October 2024FC Volendam 4–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 6 May 2022FC Volendam 2–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 6 August 2021FC Eindhoven 2–2 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 27 February 2021FC Eindhoven 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 1 November 2020FC Volendam 2–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC Eindhoven and FC Volendam
FC Eindhoven
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman102
- R. Niemeijer42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Eindhoven carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.52 for FC Volendam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.50 for FC Volendam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Eindhoven rate 0.57 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Volendam rate 0.65 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Volendam the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC Eindhoven against 1.50 for FC Volendam. FC Eindhoven's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.27 for FC Volendam.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Eindhoven at home · FC Volendam away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC Eindhoven 10, FC Volendam 10.
FC Eindhoven score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); FC Volendam have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Eindhoven
- at Helmond Sport30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- vs Jong Ajax6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- at VVV Venlo14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
- vs Waalwijk21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
FC Volendam
- vs De Graafschap30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 58%
- at Helmond Sport6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Roda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- vs Jong Ajax20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 64%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.