Lillestrom vs Brann Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 3-2 Brann.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Lillestrom, 28% draw, 32% Brann — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Lillestrom at 40%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Brann
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. HagerupG
- 2L. RangerD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 26Y. PaintsilD
- 21F. OttossonM
- 22D. BassiM
- 29Y. IbrahimajM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 20VáM
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 11F. ElkærD
- 5S. FossD
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 18K. KrygårdM
- 16H. MellandM
- 15G. NordhF
- 10T. Lehne OlsenF
- 3S. OttesenD
- 12S. NilsenG
- 15J. TorsvikD
- 3F. KnudsenD
- 21N. KasanwirjoD
- 17J. SoltvedtD
- 10K. IngasonM
- 25N. Jensen WassbergM
- 19E. GuðmundssonM
- 22S. MagnússonF
- 29N. HolmF
- 9N. CastroF
- 23T. PedersenD
- 39J. LægreidF
- 11B. FinneF
- 16K. EriksenM
- 1M. DyngelandG
- 20V. DragsnesD
- 2L. CornicD
- 43B. HaugenM
Form going into Lillestrom vs Brann
Lillestrom
Eliteserien
- W2-0away to Sandefjord18 October 2026
- D2-2Molde11 October 2026
Brann
Eliteserien
- L1-3away to Valerenga18 October 2026
- L0-2Viking9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lillestrom | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 45 |
| 7 | Brann | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brann vs Lillestrom
Brann and Lillestrom have met 7 times in the records we hold, Brann has won 4 of them to Lillestrom's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Lillestrom won the last one 3–2 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 |
| Lillestrom | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
EliteserienLillestrom 3–2 Brann - 5 Sep 2026
EliteserienBrann 1–2 Lillestrom - 9 Nov 2024
EliteserienBrann 2–1 Lillestrom - 12 May 2024
EliteserienLillestrom 0–2 Brann - 1 Oct 2023
EliteserienLillestrom 0–2 Brann - 11 Jun 2023
EliteserienBrann 2–2 Lillestrom - 20 May 2023
NM CupenBrann 2–0 Lillestrom
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Brann's attack rates 19% above Lillestrom's, and Lillestrom concede 12% fewer than Brann. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Brann | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| Lillestrom | 0.69 | 1.11 |
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Brann
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá85
Brann
GoalsAssists
- N. Holm83
- K. Ingason83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lillestrom beat Brann 3–2. The model had made a win for Lillestrom its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Fredrik Gulbrandsen 23' for Lillestrom, Kristian Eriksen 60' for Brann, Felix Vá 64' for Lillestrom, Felix Vá 80' for Lillestrom, Noah Jean Holm 86' for Brann. On expected goals it finished 2.55–1.48.
How the call on Lillestrom v Brann has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Lillestrom's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Lillestrom win40%▲ +4
- Draw28%=
- Brann win32%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.