Sporting Kansas City
vs
Austin
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Austin
The model makes it 39% Sporting Kansas City, 25% draw, 36% Austin — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.77, Austin 1.71.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sporting Kansas City and Austin are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sporting Kansas City are bottom on 22 points from 28 games; Austin are 13th on 31 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Portland Timbers.
- Austin are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Nashville SC.
- Last 5 meetings: Sporting Kansas City 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Austin 1–2 Sporting Kansas City.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Kansas City at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
Sporting Kansas City
- D3-3Portland Timbers11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
Austin
- L1-4Nashville SC11 October 2026
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
- D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 68 | -33 | 22 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Austin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- 17 May 2026Austin 1–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 14 February 2026Sporting Kansas City 2–0 AustinFriendlies Clubs
- 7 September 2025Sporting Kansas City 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Austin 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 30 June 2024Sporting Kansas City 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Kansas City carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.38 for Austin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.71 for Austin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Kansas City rate 0.64 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austin rate 0.59 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Austin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Kansas City the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City against 1.71 for Austin. Sporting Kansas City's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.51 for Austin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting Kansas City at home · Austin away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Sporting Kansas City 28, Austin 28.
Sporting Kansas City score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Austin have let in 6 there.
Austin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Sporting Kansas City have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sporting Kansas City
- at Minnesota United FC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 24%
- vs FC Dallas31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 31%
- at San Diego8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 23%
Austin
- vs Real Salt Lake29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 42%
- at Los Angeles Galaxy31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- vs Portland Timbers8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.