Inter Miami
vs
FC Cincinnati
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Inter Miami 3–1 FC Cincinnati
The model makes it 67% Inter Miami, 16% draw, 17% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (6%).
Expected goals: Inter Miami 3.76, FC Cincinnati 1.78.
Both teams to score: 81%. Over 2.5 goals: 91%, under 2.5: 9%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Inter Miami: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Inter Miami are 2nd on 49 points from 28 games; FC Cincinnati are 9th on 36 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Inter Miami have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to DC United.
- FC Cincinnati have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Atlanta United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Miami 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter Miami.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 67% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
- W4-0DC United10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
FC Cincinnati
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
- FC Cincinnati failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 68 | 50 | +18 | 49 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 65 | -7 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati
- 13 May 2026FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 23 November 2025FC Cincinnati 0–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 26 July 2025Inter Miami 0–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 16 July 2025FC Cincinnati 3–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2024Inter Miami 2–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2024FC Cincinnati 6–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2311
- L. Suárez143
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey163
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Miami carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.49 for FC Cincinnati. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.76 goals for Inter Miami and 1.78 for FC Cincinnati. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Miami rate 1.11 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Cincinnati rate 0.86 and 1.85.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.76 expected goals for Inter Miami against 1.78 for FC Cincinnati. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.85 for FC Cincinnati.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Inter Miami at home · FC Cincinnati away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Inter Miami 27, FC Cincinnati 26.
Inter Miami score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); FC Cincinnati have let in 13 there.
FC Cincinnati score most often in the 76–90 minute window (20 goals); Inter Miami have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Inter Miami
- at New England Revolution2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs Charlotte7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 55%
FC Cincinnati
- vs Philadelphia Union31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.