Wellington Phoenix
vs
Central Coast Mariners
A-League prediction
Our model says: Wellington Phoenix 1–2 Central Coast Mariners
The model makes it 36% Wellington Phoenix, 25% draw, 39% Central Coast Mariners — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Wellington Phoenix 1.70, Central Coast Mariners 1.76.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 December 2025, ended Wellington Phoenix 3–1 Central Coast Mariners.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Central Coast Mariners at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
- 21 December 2025Wellington Phoenix 3–1 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 2 November 2025Central Coast Mariners 1–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 25 January 2025Wellington Phoenix 0–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 10 November 2024Central Coast Mariners 0–3 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 6 October 2024Central Coast Mariners 2–1 Wellington PhoenixFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2024Central Coast Mariners 2–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wellington Phoenix carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.24 for Central Coast Mariners. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.76 for Central Coast Mariners. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wellington Phoenix rate 0.55 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Central Coast Mariners rate 0.56 and 1.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Central Coast Mariners the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Wellington Phoenix against 1.76 for Central Coast Mariners. Wellington Phoenix's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.89 for Central Coast Mariners.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Wellington Phoenix
- at Newcastle Jets31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 24%
- at Auckland FC7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 24%
- vs Macarthur FC22 Nov · A-Leaguewin 37%
- vs Adelaide United6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 31%
Central Coast Mariners
- at Melbourne Victory1 Nov · A-Leaguewin 28%
- at Sydney FC6 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
- vs Perth Glory21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 38%
- vs Auckland FC28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.