Oxford United
vs
Stockport County
League One postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 43% Oxford United, 27% draw, 30% Stockport County — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Oxford United 1.55, Stockport County 1.23.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
More League One predictions
Model insights: Oxford United vs Stockport County
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oxford United at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oxford United vs Stockport County
Oxford United
- W2-1away to Notts County10 October 2026
- D1-1Cambridge United19 September 2026
- W3-0Burton Albion12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Leicester5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Huddersfield1 September 2026
Stockport County
- W3-1Barnsley10 October 2026
- W1-0Peterborough26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday19 September 2026
- L3-4Leicester12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Wigan5 September 2026
What these results say
- Oxford United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oxford United had three goals or more.
- Stockport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Oxford United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 14 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Oxford United and Stockport County
Oxford United
GoalsAssists
- M. Harris41
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton71
- J. Diamond42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Oxford United carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.42 for Stockport County. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Oxford United and 1.23 for Stockport County. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oxford United rate 0.62 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stockport County rate 0.70 and 1.65.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stockport County, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oxford United a 16% chance of the title and Stockport County 14.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oxford United the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Oxford United against 1.23 for Stockport County. Oxford United's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.65 for Stockport County.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.