Fixtures & Predictions
Championship predictions
36 matches ahead, from 9 October to 17 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Southampton, 56% against Bolton. 4 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.
1 home · X draw · 2 away — fair odds, times in UTC
Friday 9 October — 1 match
- 19:00 UTC West Ham vs QPR — model 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.70 · 4.55.
Saturday 10 October — 10 matches
- 11:30 UTC West Brom vs Birmingham — model 37% / 32% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.13 · 3.23.
- 11:30 UTC Swansea vs Norwich — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57.
- 11:30 UTC Charlton vs Bristol City — model 34% / 32% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.94 · 3.13 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Watford vs Burnley — model 29% / 30% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.33 · 2.44.
- 14:00 UTC Preston vs Millwall — model 31% / 29% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 3.45 · 2.50.
- 14:00 UTC Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln — model 35% / 31% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.23 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Blackburn vs Cardiff — model 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.33 · 3.45.
- 14:00 UTC Bolton vs Stoke City — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03.
- 14:00 UTC Derby vs Wrexham — model 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.45 · 3.03.
- 14:00 UTC Middlesbrough vs Wolves — model 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.45 · 3.23.
Sunday 11 October — 1 match
Tuesday 13 October — 8 matches
- 18:45 UTC Wolves vs Bolton — model 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.70 · 4.17.
- 18:45 UTC Cardiff vs Watford — model 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.33 · 3.45.
- 18:45 UTC Burnley vs Charlton — model 49% / 29% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.45 · 4.55.
- 18:45 UTC Bristol City vs Blackburn — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33.
- 18:45 UTC Millwall vs Swansea — model 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.33 · 3.23.
- 18:45 UTC Wrexham vs West Brom — model 38% / 31% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.23 · 3.23.
- 19:00 UTC Birmingham vs Preston — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00.
- 19:00 UTC Stoke City vs Middlesbrough — model 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.45 · 2.63.
Wednesday 14 October — 4 matches
- 18:45 UTC Norwich vs Southampton — model 33% / 27% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.70 · 2.50.
- 18:45 UTC QPR vs Derby — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33.
- 18:45 UTC Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd — model 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.45 · 3.03.
- 19:00 UTC Lincoln vs West Ham — model 34% / 31% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.23 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
Friday 16 October — 1 match
- 19:00 UTC Burnley vs Wolves — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33.
Saturday 17 October — 11 matches
- 11:30 UTC Watford vs Charlton — model 38% / 32% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.13 · 3.33.
- 11:30 UTC Millwall vs Lincoln — model 38% / 31% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.23 · 3.23.
- 11:30 UTC Middlesbrough vs Cardiff — model 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.70 · 4.35.
- 14:00 UTC Southampton vs Bolton — model 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.17 · 5.00.
- 14:00 UTC Birmingham vs QPR — model 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.33 · 3.57.
- 14:00 UTC Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13.
- 14:00 UTC West Brom vs Blackburn — model 39% / 32% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.13 · 3.45.
- 14:00 UTC Derby vs Stoke City — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13.
- 14:00 UTC Norwich vs Portsmouth — model 46% / 27% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.70 · 3.70.
- 14:00 UTC Swansea vs West Ham — model 35% / 30% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.33 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Wrexham vs Preston — model 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.57 · 3.85.
Last round: the model's hits and misses
18–20 September: the model called the result of 5 of 12 matches, 2 of them to the exact score.
- Bristol City 1–0 Watford — the model said 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
- Cardiff 3–1 Charlton — the model said 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
- Millwall 2–2 West Ham — the model said 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
- Stoke City 2–1 Sheffield Utd — the model said 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
- Birmingham 2–2 Middlesbrough — the model said 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
- Burnley 1–1 Derby — the model said 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
- Lincoln 1–2 Swansea — the model said 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Portsmouth 2–2 Blackburn — the model said 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
- QPR 2–2 Preston — the model said 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Wrexham 2–1 Southampton — the model said 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
- Wolves 1–0 West Brom — the model said 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
- Norwich 3–4 Bolton — the model said 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
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