Sheffield Utd
vs
Watford
Championship prediction
Our model says: Sheffield Utd 1–0 Watford
The model makes it 52% Sheffield Utd, 27% draw, 21% Watford — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.66, Watford 0.85.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Sheffield Utd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sheffield Utd's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Watford's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Sheffield Utd are 10th on 22 points from 15 games; Watford are 20th on 15 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Sheffield Utd have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Charlton.
- Watford have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Middlesbrough.
- Last 6 meetings: Sheffield Utd 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Watford 0–2 Sheffield Utd.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sheffield Utd vs Watford
Has the model earned this number?
Sheffield Utd at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Watford
Sheffield Utd
Championship
- L1-2away to Charlton7 November 2026
- W3-2away to Preston3 November 2026
- W1-0Wrexham30 October 2026
- D1-1Derby24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026
Watford
Championship
- D0-0Middlesbrough7 November 2026
- W1-0Lincoln3 November 2026
- L2-3away to Norwich31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves24 October 2026
- W2-0Charlton17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Utd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Watford had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Watford
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Watford
- 18 April 2026Watford 0–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 18 October 2025Sheffield Utd 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 4 January 2025Watford 1–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 1 September 2024Sheffield Utd 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 25 February 2023Sheffield Utd 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 1 August 2022Watford 1–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Watford
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Utd a 0.6% chance of the title and Watford 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Sheffield Utd v Watford has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 54% / 26% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 52% / 27% / 21%: the biggest move is Sheffield Utd's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Sheffield Utd win52%▼ −2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Watford win21%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Utd the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sheffield Utd against 0.85 for Watford. Sheffield Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.43 for Watford.
How the model reaches 52% for Sheffield Utd to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sheffield Utd to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sheffield Utd's ratings add 6 points and Watford's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Sheffield Utd's ratings47%+6
- Watford's ratings52%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sheffield Utd at home · Watford away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Sheffield UtdWatford
Sheffield Utd are 10th after 15 Championship matches (between 8th and 15th so far); Watford are 20th after 15 (between 6th and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Sheffield Utd 15, Watford 15.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sheffield Utd
- vs Southampton24 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
- at QPR28 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
- vs West Ham4 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- at Millwall8 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Burnley12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Watford
- vs Blackburn25 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- at Derby28 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Millwall5 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- at Birmingham8 Dec · Championshipwin 15%
- at QPR12 Dec · Championshipwin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.