Bristol City
vs
Wrexham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Bristol City 0–1 Wrexham
The model makes it 35% Bristol City, 29% draw, 36% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bristol City 1.21, Wrexham 1.23.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Bristol City and Wrexham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Bristol City's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Wrexham's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Bristol City are 17th on 18 points from 15 games; Wrexham are 15th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Bristol City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Norwich.
- Wrexham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Wolves.
- Last 2 meetings: Wrexham 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 February 2026, ended Bristol City 2–2 Wrexham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bristol City vs Wrexham
Has the model earned this number?
Wrexham at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bristol City vs Wrexham
Bristol City
Championship
- L0-5Norwich7 November 2026
- L1-2Wolves4 November 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Stoke City24 October 2026
- L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026
Wrexham
Championship
- D1-1Wolves7 November 2026
- W2-0Middlesbrough4 November 2026
- L0-1away to Sheffield Utd30 October 2026
- L0-2away to Blackburn24 October 2026
- W4-1Preston17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bristol City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wrexham had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bristol City
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Wrexham
- 17 February 2026Bristol City 2–2 WrexhamChampionship
- 26 November 2025Wrexham 2–0 Bristol CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Bristol City and Wrexham
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bristol City a 0% chance of the title and Wrexham 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bristol City against 1.23 for Wrexham. Bristol City's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.3 for Wrexham.
How the model reaches 36% for Wrexham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wrexham to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Bristol City's ratings add 2 points and Wrexham's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Bristol City's ratings32%+2
- Wrexham's ratings36%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bristol City at home · Wrexham away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Bristol CityWrexham
Bristol City are 17th after 15 Championship matches (between 3rd and 23rd so far); Wrexham are 15th after 15 (between 10th and 17th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Bristol City 15, Wrexham 15.
Bristol City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Wrexham have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bristol City
- at West Brom28 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Swansea5 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
- at Derby9 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- at West Ham12 Dec · Championshipwin 17%
Wrexham
- vs Portsmouth28 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- at Norwich5 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Charlton8 Dec · Championshipwin 50%
- at Bolton11 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.