Wrexham
vs
Portsmouth
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wrexham 1–0 Portsmouth
The model makes it 41% Wrexham, 30% draw, 29% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wrexham 1.33, Portsmouth 1.05.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Wrexham's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Portsmouth's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Wrexham are 15th on 18 points from 15 games; Portsmouth are 11th on 22 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Wrexham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Wolves.
- Portsmouth have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Stoke City.
- Last 2 meetings: Wrexham 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 February 2026, ended Wrexham 2–1 Portsmouth.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wrexham vs Portsmouth
Has the model earned this number?
Wrexham at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wrexham vs Portsmouth
Wrexham
Championship
- D1-1Wolves7 November 2026
- W2-0Middlesbrough4 November 2026
- L0-1away to Sheffield Utd30 October 2026
- L0-2away to Blackburn24 October 2026
- W4-1Preston17 October 2026
Portsmouth
Championship
- L1-2Stoke City7 November 2026
- W3-1Swansea3 November 2026
- D0-0away to Burnley31 October 2026
- W2-1Millwall24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Wolves20 October 2026
What these results say
- Wrexham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wrexham had two goals or fewer.
- Portsmouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portsmouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Portsmouth.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Portsmouth
- 24 February 2026Wrexham 2–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 5 November 2025Portsmouth 0–0 WrexhamChampionship
Leading scorers: Wrexham and Portsmouth
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore52
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Portsmouth (11th, with Wrexham 15th), while our numbers lean to Wrexham. Wrexham rate 0.71 in attack and 1.30 in defence, Portsmouth 0.67 and 1.23 (lower is better in defence), so Wrexham have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wrexham a 0.2% chance of the title and Portsmouth 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Wrexham against 1.05 for Portsmouth. Wrexham's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.23 for Portsmouth.
How the model reaches 41% for Wrexham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wrexham to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Wrexham's ratings change nothing and Portsmouth's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Wrexham's ratings41%±0
- Portsmouth's ratings41%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Wrexham at home · Portsmouth away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
WrexhamPortsmouth
Wrexham are 15th after 15 Championship matches (between 10th and 17th so far); Portsmouth are 11th after 15 (between 8th and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Wrexham 15, Portsmouth 15.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Wrexham
- at Norwich5 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Charlton8 Dec · Championshipwin 50%
- at Bolton11 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
Portsmouth
- vs West Brom5 Dec · Championshipwin 35%
- at Preston9 Dec · Championshipwin 41%
- vs Birmingham12 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.