Middlesbrough
vs
Bristol City
Championship prediction
Our model says: Middlesbrough 2–0 Bristol City
The model makes it 58% Middlesbrough, 24% draw, 18% Bristol City — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.95, Bristol City 0.83.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Middlesbrough are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Middlesbrough's rating is built from 64 Championship matches and Bristol City's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Middlesbrough are 2nd on 29 points from 15 games; Bristol City are 17th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Middlesbrough have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Watford.
- Bristol City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Norwich.
- Last 6 meetings: Bristol City 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Middlesbrough 1–1 Bristol City.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
Middlesbrough
Championship
- D0-0away to Watford7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Wrexham4 November 2026
- W3-0Charlton31 October 2026
- W5-1away to Bolton23 October 2026
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
Bristol City
Championship
- L0-5Norwich7 November 2026
- L1-2Wolves4 November 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Stoke City24 October 2026
- L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bristol City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Middlesbrough
Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today
Bristol City
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
- 14 March 2026Middlesbrough 1–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 20 December 2025Bristol City 2–0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 21 February 2025Bristol City 2–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 19 October 2024Middlesbrough 0–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 10 February 2024Middlesbrough 1–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 25 November 2023Bristol City 3–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Bristol City
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Middlesbrough a 21.2% chance of the title and Bristol City 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Middlesbrough v Bristol City has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Middlesbrough's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Middlesbrough win58%▲ +3
- Draw24%▼ −1
- Bristol City win18%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Middlesbrough against 0.83 for Bristol City. Middlesbrough's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.44 for Bristol City.
How the model reaches 58% for Middlesbrough to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Middlesbrough to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Middlesbrough's ratings add 9 points and Bristol City's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Middlesbrough's ratings51%+9
- Bristol City's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Middlesbrough at home · Bristol City away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MiddlesbroughBristol City
Middlesbrough are 2nd after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Bristol City are 17th after 15 (between 3rd and 23rd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Middlesbrough 15, Bristol City 15.
Bristol City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Middlesbrough have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Middlesbrough
- vs Swansea24 Nov · Championshipwin 49%
- at Southampton27 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
- vs Derby5 Dec · Championshipwin 61%
- at West Ham8 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
- at Preston12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Bristol City
- vs Wrexham24 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- at West Brom28 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Swansea5 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
- at Derby9 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- at West Ham12 Dec · Championshipwin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.