Wolves
vs
Charlton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wolves 1–0 Charlton
The model makes it 57% Wolves, 26% draw, 17% Charlton — fair odds of 1.75, 3.85 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Wolves 1.73, Charlton 0.68.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Wolves are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Wolves's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Charlton's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Wolves are 4th on 28 points from 15 games; Charlton are 19th on 17 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Wrexham.
- Charlton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Sheffield Utd.
- Last 6 meetings: Wolves 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 December 2015, ended Charlton 0–2 Wolves.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wolves vs Charlton
Has the model earned this number?
Wolves at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wolves vs Charlton
Wolves
Championship
- D1-1away to Wrexham7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Bristol City4 November 2026
- W3-0Cardiff31 October 2026
- W1-0Watford24 October 2026
- D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026
Charlton
Championship
- W2-1Sheffield Utd7 November 2026
- L0-1Bolton3 November 2026
- L0-3away to Middlesbrough31 October 2026
- L1-3Norwich24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026
What these results say
- Wolves went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Wolves scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wolves
Chance to finish in the top two · 21% today
Charlton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Wolves vs Charlton
- 28 December 2015Charlton 0–2 WolvesChampionship
- 29 August 2015Wolves 2–1 CharltonChampionship
- 24 January 2015Wolves 0–0 CharltonChampionship
- 16 September 2014Charlton 1–1 WolvesChampionship
- 20 April 2013Charlton 2–1 WolvesChampionship
- 27 October 2012Wolves 1–1 CharltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Wolves and Charlton
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Charlton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wolves a 10.3% chance of the title and Charlton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Wolves v Charlton has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 59% / 25% / 16% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 57% / 26% / 17%: the biggest move is Wolves's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Wolves win57%▼ −2
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Charlton win17%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Wolves against 0.68 for Charlton. Wolves's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.38 for Charlton.
How the model reaches 57% for Wolves to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wolves to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Wolves's ratings add 10 points and Charlton's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Wolves's ratings50%+10
- Charlton's ratings57%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Wolves at home · Charlton away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
WolvesCharlton
Wolves are 4th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Charlton are 19th after 15 (between 1st and 21st). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Wolves 15, Charlton 15.
Wolves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Charlton have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wolves
- vs Derby24 Nov · Championshipwin 58%
- at Lincoln28 Nov · Championshipwin 44%
- vs Southampton5 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- at QPR8 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Millwall12 Dec · Championshipwin 49%
Charlton
- vs Lincoln24 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Blackburn28 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
- vs Birmingham5 Dec · Championshipwin 23%
- at Wrexham8 Dec · Championshipwin 21%
- vs Swansea12 Dec · Championshipwin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.